18 Primrose Ln · Big Bass Lake, PA 18424

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1985 0.37 ac lot $131/sqft · 14% below area Est $222k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Your new home or Pocono retreat awaits you in Thornhurst, where nature, comfort and recreation come together in one beautiful setting. This 2 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch with a spacious layout designed for both relaxation and entertaining. Large rear deck is spacious for everyone. Located within the highly sought-after North Pocono School District and nestled in the Thornhurst Country Club Estates community, residents enjoy access to a variety of amenities including a community pool, clubhouse, 9-hole golf course, tennis courts, basketball courts, and more.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Tennis courts

Tags

• LARGE REAR DECK
• NORTH POCONO SCHOOL DISTRICT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• 9-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,450 (above-grade finished area 1,450); Enhanced accessible features

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (circuit breakers)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1985
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Foundation: see remarks
• Exterior features: Deck; Wooded lot; City street frontage; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (Primary bedroom); Bedroom 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms total — 1 full bathroom and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Pellet stove; No central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main-level laundry room; Has fireplace (pellet stove); Crawl opening attic; Unfinished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Big Bass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#763 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Pocono SD (rural): math 45% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #82 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $190k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,575
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -14.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 Magnolia Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-7%)	17mo	$193,000	$143	66
172 Magnolia Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (-2%)	20mo	$224,000	$157	64
15 Hawthorn Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-5%)	8mo	$195,000	$141	62
125 Elderberry Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (-7%)	21mo	$184,000	$136	47
1249 Country Club Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	10mo	$255,000	$182	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $100,869
• Equity at exit: $150,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $280,466
• Equity at exit: $304,118

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18424

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Magnolia Dr Gouldsboro, PA	3.0	2.0	1583	$2,000	$1.26	14d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $190,000 559-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   status Active 559-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 559-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   listed $205,000 Active 559-char remark
5. 2007-04-24
   listed $204,900
6. 2007-04-24
   listed $204,900
7. 2006-03-22
   listed $199,000
8. 2002-11-01
   soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $3,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pocono SD
• NCES district ID: 4217310
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,555
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1894
• State rank: #82 of 539 in PA

Livability — Big Bass Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #7622

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,076

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Iranian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.45%
• Current HPI: 399.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+143.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $190,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-05 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-28 Listed $205,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-04-24 Listed $204,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2007-04-24 Listed $204,900 PMAR
• 2006-03-22 Listed $199,000 PMAR
• 2002-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+29.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $59,163 · +1271.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.