979 Elk Run Rd · Heber, AZ 85928

$185,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily · 329 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition 9.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for that summer retreat or getaway cabin, well here is an ideal home for that. A 1 bedroom 1 bath site-built home with concrete slab foundation on 9.35 acres with new blinds, tile floor, a gas range, solar refrigerator and a washer, dryer. The solar system has (2) $1,500 lithium batteries, with solar panels. There is a separate 625 sq ft bunkhouse with a covered deck and it comes partially furnished along with a storage shed and (2) 1000 gallon water storage tanks. One water storage tank is used for (2) fenced 10x20 raised garden beds. Come take a Look before it is gone.

Key facts

• Tile floor
• Site built home
• Solar refrigerator

Tags

• SITE BUILT HOME
• CONCRETE SLAB FOUNDATION
• NEW BLINDS
• TILE FLOOR
• GAS RANGE
• SOLAR REFRIGERATOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($968/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,332
• Equity at exit: $61,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $46,266
• Equity at exit: $81,056

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $145	+0% $81	+5% $17	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $13	+0% $81	+5% $149	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $128	base $81	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 315 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 314 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 310 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 309 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 308 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 307 DOM
18. 2025-07-27
    listed $185,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Looking for that summer retreat or getaway cabin, well here is an ideal home for that. A 1 bedroom 1 bath site-built home with concrete slab foundation on 9.35 acres with new blinds, tile floor, a gas range, solar refrigerator and a washer, dryer. The solar system has (2) $1,500 lithium batteries, with solar panels. There is a separate 625 sq ft bunkhouse with a covered deck and it comes partially furnished along with a storage shed and (2) 1000 gallon water storage tanks. One water storage tank is used for (2) fenced 10x20 raised garden beds. Come take a Look before it is gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, exterior, and flooring. Fresh paint, new appliances, and updated siding will significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — Old and worn
• Major bathroom cleaning — Cluttered and in need of cleaning
• Major exterior siding — Signs of wear
• Major flooring — Old and worn
• Major paint touch-up — Paint faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances both appearance and functionality
• Both Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom cleaning · Cluttered and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint touch-up · Paint faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring enhances both appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and durability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-27 Listed $185,000 CAAR