4374 Lindsey Ln Unit A · Orange Beach, AL 36561

$318,500

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · Condo public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2002 $476/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic Orange Beach Location and an even better Price! Own a Piece of Paradise for only $318,500! This Great 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Duplex is Light and Bright and Nicely Furnished. This Lake Front Unit features Tile Flooring Throughout and a Spacious Kitchen with Plenty of Counter Space and an Eat In Bar. The Kitchen also offers Stainless Steel Appliances, a Beautiful Subway Tile Backsplash and Access to Your Covered Lake Front Patio. Orange Beach Villas offers a Community Clubhouse, Outdoor Pool, Gazebo, BBQ Grills, Walking Paths and Plenty of Parking. Enjoy this Great Unit as your Primary Residence, Second Home or Short Term Rental Investment. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Lake front unit
• Tile flooring

Tags

• LAKE FRONT UNIT
• TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• COVERED LAKE FRONT PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($406/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.2% in Orange Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in AL, #3,891 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Orange Beach Elementary School (math 63% / reading 80%); Orange Beach Middlehigh School (631 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; list at $318k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-49,269
• Equity at exit: $47,489

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-39,364
• Equity at exit: $27,538

Cash invested: $89,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36561

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,670
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,832/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$476
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,078

Max offer price $318,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $124	+0% $34	+5% $-56	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-89	+0% $34	+5% $157	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $115	base $34	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,625
• Closing costs: $9,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $476 · $5,712/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $318,500 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $318,500 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,500 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,500 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,500 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,500 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $318,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,500 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $318,500 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $318,500 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,500 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,500 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $318,500 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $318,500 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,500 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,500 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,500 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $318,500 Active 106 DOM
19. 2026-02-13
    listed $318,500 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    Fantastic Orange Beach Location and an even better Price! Own a Piece of Paradise for only $318,500! This Great 3 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Duplex is Light and Bright and Nicely Furnished. This Lake Front Unit features Tile Flooring Throughout and a Spacious Kitchen with Plenty of Counter Space and an Eat In Bar. The Kitchen also offers Stainless Steel Appliances, a Beautiful Subway Tile Backsplash and Access to Your Covered Lake Front Patio. Orange Beach Villas offers a Community Clubhouse, Outdoor Pool, Gazebo, BBQ Grills, Walking Paths and Plenty of Parking. Enjoy this Great Unit as your Primary Residence, Second Home or Short Term Rental Investment. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2025-08-29
    price $330,000
21. 2024-11-04
    status Active
22. 2024-09-23
    price $338,000
23. 2024-08-27
    price $346,500
24. 2024-07-17
    price $349,000
25. 2024-05-02
    listed $359,000 Active
26. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus $179,000
27. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus $179,000
28. 2017-06-06
    listed $183,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,841
• − Property taxes: −$1,832
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,996
• − Management: −$2,996
• − HOA: −$5,712
• − Depreciation: −$9,265
• Taxable loss: −$4,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Orange Beach

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3891

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange Beach, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 9,528
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 9,528
• Household income: $98,295
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.50%
• Current HPI: 270.8382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+74.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $318,500 BCAR
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $330,000 BCAR
• 2024-11-04 Relisted — BCAR
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $338,000 BCAR
• 2024-08-27 Price Changed $346,500 BCAR
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $349,000 BCAR
• 2024-05-02 Listed $359,000 BCAR
• 2017-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-25 Sold (MLS) $179,000 BCAR
• 2017-06-06 Listed $183,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,832 · -14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.