5515 Green Timbers Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$249,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1976 8,280 sqft lot $96/sqft · 9% below area Est $275k · 9% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Four bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in the desirable Oaks of Atascocita and offers a versatile layout ideal for both daily living and entertaining. Upon entry, you’re greeted by a formal dining room on the left, while a flexible space on the right can easily serve as a home office, second living area, or game room. The first floor features an open-concept design with seamless trendy flooring throughout. The kitchen is equipped with white cabinetry and flows into the family room, which overlooks the backyard and includes a wet bar & cozy fireplace. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a large pool, perfect for hosting summer gatherings. Additional highlights include

Key facts

• 8,280 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & Co; Annual association fee $550; Community features include curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1976; Living area about 2,599
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot; Concrete road access; Private in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Butler's pantry / pantry (approx. 10 x 4)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor) approximately 14 x 20; Bedroom (second floor) approximately 12 x 11; Bedroom (second floor) approximately 10.5 x 13; Bedroom (second floor) approximately 10.5 x 13; Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace with gas log; Tub with shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor) approx. 8 x 8

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $200k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,142
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -9.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5726 Green Timbers Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,592 (-0%)	1mo	$249,999	$96	87
19518 Alinawood Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,634 (+1%)	1mo	$265,000	$101	83
5527 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,348 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$119	80
5606 Timbers Trail Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,498 (-4%)	1mo	$255,000	$102	75
5535 Enchanted Timbers Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,931 (+13%)	2mo	$265,900	$91	73
5706 Upper Lake Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,667 (+3%)	1mo	$285,000	$107	72
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-12%)	0mo	$299,900	$132	72
5531 Flax Bourton St	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,318 (-11%)	1mo	$285,000	$123	59
19102 Milloak Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,490 (-4%)	2mo	$315,000	$127	58
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,292 (-12%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	55
5422 Enchanted Mist Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,876 (+11%)	2mo	$299,900	$104	54
6007 Summer Oaks Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,821 (+8%)	1mo	$299,500	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,659
• Equity at exit: $60,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,817
• Equity at exit: $64,391

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,511/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	43d	1	0.15mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	0.53mi
18406 S Roaring River Ct Humble, TX	4.0	4.0	3319	$3,600	$1.08	43d	1	1.02mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.17mi
12214 Landsdown Ridge Way Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2389	$2,165	$0.91	11d	1	1.21mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	1.25mi
18810 Summer Anne Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,376	$0.79	43d	1	1.25mi
18222 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	3265	$2,851	$0.87	5d	1	1.26mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	1.28mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.33mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	1.33mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	5d	1	1.35mi
18123 Noble Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2328	$2,595	$1.11	5d	1	1.39mi
18103 Yellowstone Trl Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2602	$2,371	$0.91	43d	1	1.41mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $249,900 Active 963-char remark
2. 2024-11-04
   soldstatus $200,000
3. 1998-09-21
   soldstatus
4. 1998-09-01
   soldstatus $94,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,511 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,511 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,511
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,725
• − Management: −$2,725
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $34
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8
• After-tax cash flow: $3,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+163.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,511 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.