416 Dry Valley Rd · Burnham, PA 17009

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Other public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 story, 3 bdrm 1 bath Craftsman style home. 3 car detached garage, Above ground swimming pool, newer carpet and paint. Large family room with loft area.

Key facts

• Rear garage
• Detached garage
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• REAR GARAGE
• METAL ROOF REPLACEMENT
• QUIET COUNTRY SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached front-entry garage with three garage spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Metal roof
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Year built sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Front porch(es); Road frontage approximately 70 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliance details not provided)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil-fired); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Full basement with partial finish and walkout level; Living room; Dining room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Hot water is electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#634 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $140k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.00%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $97,871
• Equity at exit: $109,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $256,412
• Equity at exit: $219,706

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17009

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,406/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,256

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $667	-5% $627	+0% $588	+5% $548	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $430	-5% $509	+0% $588	+5% $667	+10% $746
Rate	-1.0pp $658	-0.5pp $623	base $588	+0.5pp $551	+1.0pp $514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 4th Ave Burnham, PA	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,000	$1.02	44d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   listed $139,900 Active
10. 2009-05-20
    soldstatus $82,700
11. 2009-05-18
    soldstatus $82,700 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    2 story, 3 bdrm 1 bath Craftsman style home. 3 car detached garage, Above ground swimming pool, newer carpet and paint. Large family room with loft area.

12. 2008-09-03
    listed $85,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    2 story, 3 bdrm 1 bath Craftsman style home. 3 car detached garage, Above ground swimming pool, newer carpet and paint. Large family room with loft area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,406
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $5,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $5,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflin County SD
• NCES district ID: 4215290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,718
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5755
• State rank: #380 of 539 in PA

Livability — Burnham

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #634
• US rank: #6172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burnham, PA
• City population: 2,804
• Population (ZIP): 1,682

Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,611 people
• By 2030: 43,212 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 40,197 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,813 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 28,833 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 20,296 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Current HPI: 249.4239
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+64.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $82,700 Public Records
• 2009-05-18 Sold (MLS) $82,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-03 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,406 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.