6692 W Lilly Pad Cir · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$795,000

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,650 sqft · MultiFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.00 ac lot $218/sqft · 9% below area Est $875k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 4 unit plan by Byler Contracting is a great way to start. Each unit has 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $795k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $42/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $717k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $717k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,169/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($771k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $716,900 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $875,424
• List price: $795,000
• Delta: -9.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-116,696
• Equity at exit: $118,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-82,223
• Equity at exit: $68,737

Cash invested: $222,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 37.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$994 /mo · $11,925/yr
• Insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,505
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,955

Max offer price $795,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $719	-5% $444	+0% $169	+5% $-105	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-114	+0% $169	+5% $453	+10% $736
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $372	base $169	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-246

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$7,168
Total (4 units)			$7,169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,750
• Closing costs: $23,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $795,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $795,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $795,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $795,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $795,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-04-06
   listed $795,000 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 4 unit plan by Byler Contracting is a great way to start. Each unit has 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. All units individually metered.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $86,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,532
• − Property taxes: −$11,925
• − Insurance: −$3,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,882
• − Management: −$6,882
• − Depreciation: −$23,127
• Taxable loss: −$11,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,711
• After-tax cash flow: $4,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed multi-family property is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. It offers a great opportunity for passive income and investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete interior finishing and installation of fixtures — Finishing the interior will make the property move-in ready and ready for occupancy.
• Both Install HVAC and utilities — Completing the HVAC and utilities will make the property fully functional and ready for occupancy.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the property's visual appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Paint interior and exterior — Painting will improve the property's appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Install lighting and electrical fixtures — Completing the electrical and lighting systems will make the property fully functional and ready for occupancy.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete interior finishing and installation of fixtures — Finishing the interior will make the property move-in ready and ready for occupancy. ↑
• Both Install HVAC and utilities — Completing the HVAC and utilities will make the property fully functional and ready for occupancy. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the property's visual appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Paint interior and exterior — Painting will improve the property's appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install lighting and electrical fixtures — Completing the electrical and lighting systems will make the property fully functional and ready for occupancy. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $795,000 AKMLS