Columbia Plan · Connerton, FL 34637

$400,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 391 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Private bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Versatile loft

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20421 Rose Cottage Way, Land O Lakes, FL 34637
• Financial info: List price $405,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as Active
• Exterior features: Living area 2,389

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: Columbia (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $400,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $473,022.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $473,022
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8955 Garden Party Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,487 (+4%)	16mo	$530,000	$213	71
8448 Lagerfeld Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,355 (-1%)	4mo	$490,000	$208	58
21046 Passive Porch Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0	2,455 (+3%)	4mo	$390,000	$159	56
21143 Passive Porch Dr	0.75mi	5/3.0	2,455 (+3%)	5mo	$405,000	$165	54
20537 Lace Cascade Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,594 (+9%)	11mo	$564,000	$217	54
8442 Lagerfeld Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,391 (+0%)	12mo	$415,000	$174	53
8615 Savory Walk Dr	0.68mi	5/3.0	2,529 (+6%)	15mo	$476,500	$188	44
8727 Savory Walk Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (+6%)	15mo	$500,000	$198	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-54,595
• Equity at exit: $102,077

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-29,854
• Equity at exit: $97,186

Cash invested: $132,446 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,481
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$591 /mo · $7,095/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$870
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,296

Max offer price $455,437

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $42	+0% $-122	+5% $-285	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-285	+0% $-122	+5% $42	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $-1	base $-122	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,256
• Closing costs: $14,191
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8947 Garden Party Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.5	3110	$4,000	$1.29	13d	1	0.06mi
19736 Lonesome Pine Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2634	$2,850	$1.08	26d	1	1.18mi
19736 Lonesome Pine Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2634	$2,850	$1.08	7d	1	1.18mi
21030 Green Wing Ct Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1945	$2,185	$1.12	26d	1	1.39mi
9126 Tollison Loop Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	2652	$2,600	$0.98	26d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,400 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,400 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,400 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $400,400 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $398,400 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,900 Active 382 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,900 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $395,900 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $394,900 Active 380 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $394,900 Active 377 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,900 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $394,900 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $406,400 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $406,400 Active 373 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,900 Active 373 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,497
• − Property taxes: −$7,095
• − Insurance: −$3,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,977
• − Management: −$3,977
• − Depreciation: −$13,761
• Taxable loss: −$9,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B