2400 Lemur Dr · Holiday, FL 34690

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1999 4,250 sqft lot Est $164k · at est. $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 2 Bath mobile home in a 55+ Community with very low maintenance fee of $132.00 per year. This home has been immaculately maintained, both Bathrooms have been completely remolded, loads of storage throughout the home, newer flooring, fenced backyard. This is a lot of home for the price, and ready for you to move in. Sold As Is. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information which is deemed accurate but for the buyer to verify.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Kitchen remodeled
• Golf carts allowed

Tags

• KITCHEN REMODELED
• LOADS OF STORAGE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• NEW METAL ROOF
• GOLF CARTS ALLOWED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,028/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 625% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.43%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,620
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5208 River Birch Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-14%)	13mo	$140,000	$101	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,664
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $24,790
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,160/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $602	+0% $555	+5% $509	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $395	-5% $475	+0% $555	+5% $635	+10% $716
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $597	base $555	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2434 Cool Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	2071	$1,856	$0.90	15d	1	0.12mi
5223 Forum Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,990	$1.29	18d	1	0.15mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	25d	1	0.15mi
2555 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.16mi
2555 Charlan Ct Unit Main Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,301	$1.39	25d	1	0.16mi
2578 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	25d	1	0.17mi
5015 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,195	$1.16	25d	1	0.23mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	25d	1	0.31mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.34mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.43mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	0.56mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	5d	1	0.63mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.64mi
3127 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	12d	1	0.83mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	5d	1	0.88mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	3d	13	0.96mi
5507 Riddle Rd Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	3d	1	1.00mi
5507 Riddle Rd Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1600	$1,675	$1.05	25d	1	1.00mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1568	$1,450	$0.92	12d	1	1.02mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	25d	1	1.13mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	2d	1	1.14mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	5d	1	1.18mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	25d	1	1.21mi
5312 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	3.0	2000	$3,500	$1.75	17d	1	1.21mi
1330 Chancellor Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,550	$1.86	25d	1	1.22mi
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	15d	1	1.25mi
3904 Elmwood Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	2.5	1512	$1,970	$1.30	5d	1	1.26mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	18d	1	1.30mi
3336 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	4.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	25d	1	1.33mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	25d	1	1.38mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	5d	1	1.38mi
3626 Blackhawk Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,345	$1.18	5d	1	1.39mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	25d	1	1.41mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   price $165,000
3. 2026-01-11
   price $170,000
4. 2025-12-05
   listed $175,000 Active
5. 2025-03-15
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2022-12-27
   soldstatus $145,000
7. 2022-12-19
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Check out this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 2 Bath mobile home in a 55+ Community with very low maintenance fee of $132.00 per year. This home has been immaculately maintained, both Bathrooms have been completely remolded, loads of storage throughout the home, newer flooring, fenced backyard. This is a lot of home for the price, and ready for you to move in. Sold As Is. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information which is deemed accurate but for the buyer to verify.

8. 2022-12-06
   status Pending 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Check out this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 2 Bath mobile home in a 55+ Community with very low maintenance fee of $132.00 per year. This home has been immaculately maintained, both Bathrooms have been completely remolded, loads of storage throughout the home, newer flooring, fenced backyard. This is a lot of home for the price, and ready for you to move in. Sold As Is. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information which is deemed accurate but for the buyer to verify.

9. 2022-12-05
   listed $145,000 Active 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Check out this spacious 3-4 Bedroom, 2 Bath mobile home in a 55+ Community with very low maintenance fee of $132.00 per year. This home has been immaculately maintained, both Bathrooms have been completely remolded, loads of storage throughout the home, newer flooring, fenced backyard. This is a lot of home for the price, and ready for you to move in. Sold As Is. Measurements are approx. Buyer to verify all information which is deemed accurate but for the buyer to verify.

10. 2019-01-30
    soldstatus $75,000
11. 2005-10-04
    soldstatus $85,000
12. 1995-04-11
    soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 18.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,335
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,160
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $5,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+335.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-15 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-19 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-05 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,160 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.