707 Rosegill Rd · Rockwood, VA 23236

$354,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1975 0.29 ac lot Est $395k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice large home featuring newer carpet and paint, newer replacement windows, a new dishwasher and deck and much more. There are 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a den with a wood stove, living room and dining room as well as a spacious back yard with shed and brand new deck.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Paved
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Brick, block, drywall, and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage; Shed; Paved driveway; Back yard fencing; Chain link fence; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Bedroom 2 on second level (12 x 11); Bedroom 3 on second level (11 x 9); Bedroom 4 on first level (17 x 11)
• Flooring: Laminate; Partially carpeted; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One full bath with shower (second level); One full bath with tub & shower (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Electric heating
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Sliding doors; Storm door(s); Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Fireplace; Laminate counters; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($445/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reams Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 564 students, 82% FRL); Providence Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 1,068 students, 79% FRL); Monacan High (math 49% / reading 86%, grade B, #183 of 319 statewide, top 58%, 1,631 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 26% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 154% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $355k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,866 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,352
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9419 Kendrick Rd	0.18mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,988 (+3%)	1mo	$381,000	$192	81
1615 Winters Hill Cir	0.23mi	4/3.0	1,992 (+3%)	7mo	$385,000	$193	74
807 Sun Valley Way	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,920 (-1%)	8mo	$430,000	$224	66
611 Whiffletree Rd	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,738 (-10%)	9mo	$375,000	$216	63
1329 Wadsworth Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,788 (-8%)	5mo	$365,000	$204	60
9924 Reams Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,701 (-12%)	6mo	$360,000	$212	49
9312 Upshur Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,228 (+15%)	7mo	$440,000	$197	47
9800 S Wagstaff Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (+10%)	8mo	$410,000	$191	46
125 Rosegill Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-10%)	9mo	$354,500	$203	45
1007 Sonnet Hill Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,704 (-12%)	2mo	$380,000	$223	43
10125 Saint Joan Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$191	40
8931 Providence Ridge Ter	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-13%)	3mo	$387,500	$230	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-52,960
• Equity at exit: $52,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-33,947
• Equity at exit: $30,685

Cash invested: $99,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,861
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,737/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,832

Max offer price $354,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $138	+0% $37	+5% $-63	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-77	+0% $37	+5% $151	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $127	base $37	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,725
• Closing costs: $10,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	5d	1	0.71mi
10200 Stroud Ln North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.71mi
8742 Shadymist Dr Unit N Richmond, VA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.94mi
8749 Bethany Creek Ave Unit 1546152P Richmond, VA	5.0	2.0	2098	$5,433	$2.59	21d	1	1.07mi
1224 Courthouse Rd North Chesterfield, VA	5.0	2.5	1872	$3,000	$1.60	45d	1	1.08mi
1717 Mountain Pine Ter North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.27mi
718 Bella Way North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,995	$1.20	3d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $354,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $354,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,737 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,880
• − Property taxes: −$2,737
• − Insurance: −$1,774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,764
• − Management: −$2,764
• − Depreciation: −$10,324
• Taxable loss: −$5,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $1,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+726.3% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $354,900 CVRMLS
• 2012-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-07 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CVRMLS
• 2012-08-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2012-06-26 Listed $139,950 CVRMLS
• 2012-02-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CVRMLS
• 2012-01-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2011-12-29 Listed $99,000 CVRMLS
• 2010-11-18 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-08-17 Listed $112,950 CVRMLS
• 2010-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $154,500 Public Records
• 2010-02-26 Sold (MLS) $154,500 CVRMLS
• 2010-01-19 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-01-04 Listed $159,950 CVRMLS
• 2009-11-24 Sold (MLS) $100,300 CVRMLS
• 2009-11-24 Sold (MLS) $100,300 CVRMLS
• 2009-11-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-07-08 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-07-08 Listed $125,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $126,995 Public Records
• 2004-03-31 Sold (MLS) $126,995 CVRMLS
• 2004-03-31 Sold (MLS) $126,995 CVRMLS
• 2004-03-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2004-03-02 Listed $126,995 CVRMLS
• 2004-03-02 Listed $126,995 CVRMLS
• 2004-03-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2004-02-02 Listed $124,995 CVRMLS
• 2004-02-02 Listed $124,995 CVRMLS
• 2001-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $87,100 Public Records
• 1985-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1975-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $42,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,737 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.