11130 Kentucky 1524 · Manchester, KY 40962

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 108 Days on market

6,534 sqft lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the tranquility of rural living with this charming, cabin-like 3-bedroom, 2-bath home full of potential! Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property offers the perfect retreat from the hustle and bustle while still providing endless opportunities for outdoor adventure. Enjoy fresh country air and the quiet that only rural living can provide. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, ready for your personal touch and updates. Whether you're looking to create your dream country home, a weekend getaway, or an investment property, this home offers plenty of possibilities to make it your own. Outdoor enthusiasts will love being jus

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Listed 108 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Natural gas not available
• Home design: One-story house
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Metal roof; Block and wood foundation; Built area approximately 1,000 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Lot roughly 0.15 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.6% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#299 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clay County (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #130 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goose Rock Elementary (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 211 students, 81% FRL); Clay County Middle School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #151 of 217 statewide, top 71%, 407 students, 74% FRL); Clay County High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 717 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $40,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.19%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $55,387
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.02×
• Total profit: $138,797
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40962

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $204/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $344

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $45,000 Active
17. 2010-06-22
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $204 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 89.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$204
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$920
• − Management: −$920
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay County
• NCES district ID: 2101230
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $23,180
• Composite: 22.75/100
• National rank: #8031
• State rank: #130 of 165 in KY

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #14340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,390

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,004 people
• By 2030: 19,285 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,619 · -11.9%
• By 2050: 15,782 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 11,489 · -42.6%
• By 2100: 7,949 · -60.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.3) · D 9.2% · R 89.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: -56.5pp · 2024: -80.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.3 2020: R+77.0 2016: R+75.6 2012: R+68.6 2008: R+56.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.40%
• Current HPI: 290.0025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-55.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $45,000 ImagineMLS
• 2010-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records