1451 Burning Tree St · Sarasota, FL 34234

$158,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 902 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1966 5,842 sqft lot $137/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the fenced-in back yard in this PET FRIENDLY property. Located in one of the few pet friendly streets in desirable Tri Par Estates, this large double wide boasts two bedrooms and two full baths! Large living room , eating space in kitchen and an office 'NOOK" are just a few features of this home. Recently remodeled with new flooring throughout, new drywall, new fixtures, new plumbing and more.

Key facts

• Brand-new spa
• Bright florida room
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• BRIGHT FLORIDA ROOM
• NEWER ACRYLIC WINDOWS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• HEATED AND COOLED POOL
• BRAND-NEW SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total building area reported as 2,070 sq ft; living area reported as 902 sq ft; Lot about 0.13 acre (approx. 543 m²); Universal property ID available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Dean Chandler) with required approval; Monthly HOA approximately $137.33 (annual $1,648); HOA includes cable TV, pool, internet, management and escrow reserves; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, laundry, pickleball, shuffleboard, spa/hot tub, storage; Community features include buyer approval required, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, pool; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Internet (fiber optics); Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; 7 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,173/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1306% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $158k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,122 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,285
• Equity at exit: $23,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,826
• Equity at exit: $13,704

Cash invested: $44,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$831
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,981/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $158,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,625
• Closing costs: $4,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Telluride Loop Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$2,270	$2.14	2d	20	1.18mi
2351 University Pkwy Sarasota, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,480	$2.37	2d	24	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,500 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,500 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,500 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,500 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,500 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,500 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,500 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,500 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,500 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 693-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $158,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,981
• − Insurance: −$792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,611
• Taxable income: $2,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$718
• After-tax cash flow: $4,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sarasota

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #1854

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 261,896
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+98.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $158,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-28 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,981 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.