15116 Royal Fern Ct Unit B200 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Condo · 95 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition $1067/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

END OF SEASON SALE THIS WEEKEND ONLY. Second-floor end-unit condo in Bay Forest, west of US-41. The unit has 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 10-foot ceilings, and an open layout. The updated kitchen has quartz counters and a west facing breakfast area with bay windows. The lanai faces east with views of Bay Forest’s beautiful trees. The primary bedroom has an attached bathroom and large closet. Two guest bedrooms are positioned near the entrance for privacy. Recent updates include interior paint and a new air-conditioning system. The unit has plantation shutters, six ceiling fans, and a detached garage for storage. Furnishings are negotiable Bay Forest is a 150-acre community with walking p

Key facts

• East-facing lanai
• Plantation shutters
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EAST-FACING LANAI
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WALKING PATHS
• NEW BOARDWALK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo development: Bay Forest (Plantation Homes at Bay Forest); Subdivision unit: 200; Condo complex has 42 units; building has 4 units and 1 floor; 2 units per floor
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees listed; Total one-time fees listed
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo fee; Professional management; Community maintenance includes insurance, irrigation water, manager, master association fee, exterior pest control, street lights, trash removal, and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, fitness center (attended), bike and jog path, bocce court, pickleball, tennis court, shuffleboard, sidewalks, streetlights, library, internet access, vehicle wash area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Guest parking; Paved parking
• Security: Gated
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Carriage/coach style; Rear exposure facing east; Gated community (Bay Forest)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built in 1991
• Exterior features: Patio; Private road; Zero lot line; Landscaped and wooded area views; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dome kitchen; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with combined tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler; High-speed internet available; Tray ceiling; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $364k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); North Naples Middle School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 903 students, 25% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 593 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,766/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $364,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-86,476
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-137,050
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,766 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,000/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$1,067
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,001
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,934

Max offer price $380,776

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $5	+0% $-133	+5% $-271	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-321	+0% $-133	+5% $55	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $-31	base $-133	+0.5pp $-236	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	25d	1	0.20mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	25d	1	0.22mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	25d	1	0.22mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	25d	1	0.22mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	25d	1	0.25mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	25d	3	0.29mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	25d	1	0.30mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	25d	1	0.30mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	16d	1	0.30mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	25d	3	0.30mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	25d	1	0.32mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	25d	1	0.32mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	23d	1	0.35mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	16d	1	0.38mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	25d	1	0.40mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	25d	1	0.42mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	25d	1	0.45mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$5,500	$3.13	25d	2	0.51mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	25d	1	0.64mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	16d	1	0.78mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	25d	1	0.81mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	25d	1	0.86mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	25d	1	0.91mi
817 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$5,995	$3.61	16d	1	0.91mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	18d	1	0.94mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	18d	1	0.94mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	25d	1	0.98mi
784 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$3,500	$2.31	25d	1	1.00mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	25d	1	1.02mi
360 Horse Creek Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1589	$5,250	$3.30	16d	4	1.03mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	25d	1	1.03mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	25d	1	1.03mi
1390 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$2,200	$1.72	16d	1	1.03mi
340 Horse Creek Dr #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,950	$2.22	25d	1	1.04mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	25d	1	1.04mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	25d	1	1.04mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	16d	1	1.04mi
1025 Tarpon Cove Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$5,500	$4.49	16d	1	1.05mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	25d	1	1.07mi
1415 Sweetwater Cv #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,500	$4.71	25d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,067 · $12,804/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $400,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $400,000 Active 74 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,000
• − Insurance: −$2,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,575
• − Management: −$4,575
• − HOA: −$12,804
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$7,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, updated condo is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with exterior painting and HVAC upgrades to further boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Upgrade the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Upgrade the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $400,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $448,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $449,000 NAPLESMLS