209 Scarborough Rd · Centerville, GA 31028

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1977 10,454 sqft lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $190k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a well-established neighborhood, this home offers great space and a solid layout with room to make it your own. The home opens into a spacious living room with plenty of room to spread out. The kitchen features granite countertops, a flat-top stove, wall oven, and ample cabinet space. A dining space just off to the side with garden windows for natural light. The primary bedroom includes dual closets and a private ensuite bathroom. Another standout feature of this home is the large den with exposed beams and a wood-burning fireplace, offering a great secondary living space or gathering area. Additional highlights include a multi-vehicle carport, a back deck perfect for relaxing, a

Key facts

• Wall oven
• Flat-top stove
• Dual closets

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT-TOP STOVE
• WALL OVEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• GARDEN WINDOWS
• DUAL CLOSETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven; Range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Blinds on windows; Wood-burning fireplace (1) with wood burning stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.8% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#56 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Elementary School (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #264 of 1,228 statewide, top 23%, 630 students, 84% FRL); Northside Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 844 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $185k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,674 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.15%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,201
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -2.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Scarborough Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,761 (+8%)	2mo	$225,000	$128	84
303 Woodhaven Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-3%)	0mo	$218,000	$138	76
102 Monteigo Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+7%)	5mo	$145,000	$83	72
110 Monteigo Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+8%)	4mo	$215,000	$123	71
210 Webb St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	64
103 Persimmon Glen Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-12%)	5mo	$130,000	$91	63
107 Stonefield Ct	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,468 (-10%)	6mo	$170,000	$116	62
218 Valencia Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	3mo	$235,000	$168	60
414 Forest Lake Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-6%)	3mo	$210,000	$136	55
123 Meriwood Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+10%)	5mo	$219,000	$122	52
203 Gawin Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+8%)	4mo	$170,000	$96	51
104 Cedar Glen Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+10%)	8mo	$256,000	$143	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,137
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,081
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31028

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Scarborough Rd Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,400	$0.95	21d	1	0.22mi
108 Stonefield Ct Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,475	$0.99	43d	1	0.29mi
700 Fieldstone Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,625	$1.21	43d	1	0.31mi
104 Woodcarver Trl Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	13d	1	0.47mi
213 Webb St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	21d	1	0.73mi
208 Wray St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,700	$1.13	13d	1	0.99mi
103 Abney Ct Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	1.17mi
111 Hawthorne Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,500	$0.97	43d	1	1.22mi
501 Pinecrest Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.25mi
210 Surrey Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,600	$0.99	21d	1	1.27mi
646 Gawin Dr Warner Robins, GA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,025	$0.98	43d	1	1.29mi
203 Lumpkin Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	43d	1	1.40mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	43d	1	1.44mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $185,000 Active 896-char remark
19. 2026-04-01
    historical $1,550
20. 2026-03-14
    price $1,550
21. 2025-11-11
    listed $1,650
22. 2025-06-18
    historical $1,650
23. 2025-06-04
    price $1,650
24. 2025-05-08
    listed $1,800
25. 2025-04-30
    historical
26. 2024-12-26
    status Back On Market
27. 2024-12-06
    status Under Contract
28. 2024-10-13
    listed $198,000 New
29. 2012-01-26
    soldstatus $68,500
30. 1977-02-28
    soldstatus $35,000
31. 1976-10-20
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,092 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$610/yr (+$51/mo · 55.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,092
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $147
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $3,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #5374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 6,312
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,645
• Household income: $76,342
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 41% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.75%
• Current HPI: 215.7835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+957.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $185,000 CGMLS
• 2026-04-01 Rental Removed $1,550 GAMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $1,550 GAMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed for Rent $1,650 GAMLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $1,650 GAMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $1,650 GAMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed for Rent $1,800 GAMLS
• 2025-05-01 Delisted — CGMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-12-26 Relisted — CGMLS
• 2024-12-26 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-12-06 Pending — CGMLS
• 2024-12-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-10-14 Listed $198,000 CGMLS
• 2024-10-13 Listed $198,000 GAMLS
• 2012-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 1977-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1976-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,092 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.