246 Apple Ln · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$199,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,127 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new home in a preferred all age-family community. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. Tastefully upgraded with 9' ceilings, granite counters, wood cabinets, stainless steel appliances and finishing touches. Your chance to own a brand-new home awaits.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 71 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Mountain View Mobile Estates park
• Financial info: Land lease amount $1,895
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 2 parking spaces; Guest parking available
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park; Double-wide; New construction
• Construction: Redman Homes make; Champion Home Builders manufacturer; Wood skirt
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Stone counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Island kitchen with stone countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Microwave; Gas water heater; Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

🏗️ New construction. The $199,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $184,828.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,995 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.80%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Pear Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-2%)	8mo	$160,000	$145	88
305 Aileen Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-2%)	0mo	$105,000	$95	87
196 Pear Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,106 (-2%)	14mo	$165,000	$149	83
220 Ricardo Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-2%)	1mo	$179,000	$163	82
275 Ricardo Ave	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+11%)	9mo	$190,000	$152	64
102 Apple Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+8%)	19mo	$127,000	$104	63
116 Coachman Ln #27	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-7%)	11mo	$237,950	$227	53
2313 Calico Ln #67	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-4%)	16mo	$187,000	$173	49
38 Wayside Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-8%)	9mo	$205,000	$197	48
3050 El Toro Way	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-11%)	18mo	$188,500	$189	48
144 El Crystal Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	15mo	$259,000	$245	43
146 N Star Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	960 (-15%)	11mo	$157,000	$164	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $32,511
• Equity at exit: $27,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $108,292
• Equity at exit: $15,981

Cash invested: $51,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$969
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,772/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,828

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,207
• Closing costs: $5,545
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.14mi
524 Court St Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.5	1171	$2,750	$2.35	13d	1	0.17mi
2327 Summercreek Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,920	$2.69	13d	6	0.23mi
325 Yolanda Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$3,526	$3.08	13d	15	0.41mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,145	$2.12	13d	1	0.46mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$3,549	$3.99	13d	27	0.65mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2130-101 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	920	$2,450	$2.66	13d	1	0.67mi
2585 Kenton Ct Unit B Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,150	$2.72	13d	1	0.71mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,465	$3.70	13d	8	0.74mi
2350 Corby Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,185	$2.42	13d	1	0.75mi
2150 Onyx Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$3,000	$2.42	21d	1	0.83mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	0.99mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 3075 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,850	$2.72	13d	1	1.12mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	1.12mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	1.12mi
517 Debbie Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1205	$3,000	$2.49	21d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,995 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,995 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,995 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,995 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,995 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,995 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,995 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,995 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,995 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,995 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $199,995 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,500 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,500 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,500 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,500 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    listed $219,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,353
• − Property taxes: −$2,772
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,747
• − Management: −$2,747
• − Depreciation: −$5,377
• Taxable income: $9,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,260
• After-tax cash flow: $9,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand-new manufactured home in a preferred all-age family community is in excellent condition with upgrades throughout. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value.
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and value.
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading flooring to hardwood — Improves aesthetics and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $219,500 BAREIS