3107 Us Route 11 · Parish, NY 13131

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 297 Days on market

Built 1960 0.90 ac lot $27/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

Key facts

• Cement pad
• 1 acre lot
• 0.9 acre lot

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• CEMENT PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#976 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $39k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.37%
• DSCR: 5.87
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,663
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -83.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $80,464
• Equity at exit: $35,134

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.45×
• Total profit: $190,560
• Equity at exit: $75,768

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13131

• Home prices YoY: 32.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $425

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $39,000 Pending 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,000 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,000 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,000 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

12. 2026-05-13
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

13. 2026-03-10
    price $39,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

14. 2026-03-02
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

15. 2026-02-27
    historical Active Under Contract 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

16. 2026-02-13
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

17. 2026-02-12
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

18. 2026-01-12
    price $40,950 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

19. 2025-11-22
    price $42,900 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

20. 2025-10-16
    price $45,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

21. 2025-09-16
    price $57,900 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

22. 2025-08-12
    listed $64,900 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    * * * * * * PRICE REDUCTION, PRICE REDUCTION * * * * * Large 1456 square foot home with large open areas. Bring your dreams and ideas this one is ready for your dreams a realty. Needs work/rehab. It's a blank canvas for you to make the layout the way you want. Almost a 1-acre lot. Cement pad for 1 car garage. Seller may consider rehab loan. This will be a "AS IS" sale.

23. 2024-06-16
    listed $64,900
24. 2024-06-16
    historical
25. 2009-02-10
    soldstatus $20,000
26. 2004-10-20
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $11,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,698
• After-tax cash flow: $8,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Parish

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #976
• US rank: #19100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,856

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 105.37%
• Current HPI: 432.386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+290.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $39,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-27 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $40,950 CNYIS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $42,900 CNYIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $45,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $57,900 CNYIS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $64,900 CNYIS
• 2024-06-16 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-06-16 Listed $64,900 CNYIS
• 2009-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,561 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.