11922 Gravois Rd #15 · Sunset Hills, MO 63127

$92,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 964 sqft · Condo public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1966 $220/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SOLD AS-IS. Great Sunset Hills location with easy access to the highway. Top-rated Lindbergh Schools. Open floor plan with 2 spacious bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Wonderful opportunity here for home ownership. Location: Upper Level.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• $220 HOA
• Built 1966

Tags

• SUNSET HILLS LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY
• TOP-RATED LINDBERGH SCHOOLS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Sunset Hills Condominiums community with 24 units; Monthly HOA fee of $220; HOA covers insurance, grounds maintenance, parking/road maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Outside management

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned off-street parking with additional parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric service (Ameren); Cable available; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Natural gas not available
• Home design: Condominium residential property; Two levels; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Near public transit

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range/oven; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level (12x11 and 11x11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (electric utilities noted)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.2% in Sunset Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#317 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sappington Elem. (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 504 students, 14% FRL); Lindbergh Sr. High (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #26 of 521 statewide, top 5%, 2,235 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,620 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.64%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $10,724
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $42,738
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63127

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,057/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $426	+0% $400	+5% $374	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $339	+0% $400	+5% $462	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $424	base $400	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11515 Gravois Rd Unit 11468-101 Sappington, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	4d	1	0.95mi
9854 Las Vegas Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1026	$2,100	$2.05	8d	1	1.29mi
9287 Fort Sumter Ln Sappington, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	875	$1,525	$1.74	3d	7	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $92,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $92,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $92,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $92,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $92,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   listed $92,000 Active
7. 2004-06-28
   soldstatus $88,500
8. 1984-06-01
   soldstatus $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,057 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,057
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $3,696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$887
• After-tax cash flow: $3,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindbergh Schools
• NCES district ID: 2918690
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $66,145
• Composite: 42.62/100
• National rank: #3186
• State rank: #38 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sunset Hills

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #14539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sunset Hills, MO
• City population: 5,161
• Population (ZIP): 5,161

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.60%
• Current HPI: 226.4546
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+106.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $92,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,057 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.