6530 Julia Dr · Milton, FL 32570

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 801 Days on market

Built 1975 9,583 sqft lot Est $235k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom home with many extras. Bonus area can be used as an office.(8x8) Living room is tiled. There is a fireplace in the family room, but the current owner hasn't used it. The ceiling in the Living is cathedral. Ceiling fans thru-out. 2002 windows replaced with Sears vinyl windows(double pane) Appliances are not the origianal (updated) Roof replaced 2004, Water heater replaced 2003 Outside Shed, 10x10 remains, but is not warranted.

Key facts

• Fireplace feature
• Newer roof
• Front porch

Tags

• FIREPLACE FEATURE
• FRONT PORCH
• BRICK HOME
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Publicly maintained road
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers with copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Detached property; Resale home; Has fireplace; Composition roof
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Patio; Porch; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 13' x 14'
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Some blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 801 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $150k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 801 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.12%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,558
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5913 Savannah Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+2%)	4mo	$242,050	$158	75
6483 Skyline Dr	0.06mi	4/1.0	1,392 (-7%)	11mo	$137,500	$99	73
6020 Oakwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+4%)	14mo	$280,000	$181	66
5999 Savannah Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (-2%)	6mo	$230,000	$157	66
6553 Julia Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,352 (-10%)	14mo	$205,000	$152	65
6504 Julia Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (-11%)	5mo	$183,900	$139	62
6052 Savannah Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	2mo	$230,000	$174	62
6060 Savannah Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,367 (-8%)	12mo	$215,000	$157	60
6481 Colonial Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,507 (+1%)	6mo	$105,000	$70	59
6562 Julia Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,324 (-11%)	7mo	$183,000	$138	55
6577 Kennington Cir	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,593 (+7%)	4mo	$264,000	$166	52
6466 Charleston Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	13mo	$220,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,660
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $67,629
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,473/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $753	-5% $711	+0% $669	+5% $626	+10% $584
Rent	-10% $505	-5% $587	+0% $669	+5% $751	+10% $833
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $707	base $669	+0.5pp $630	+1.0pp $590

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6460 Stewart St Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,500	$1.72	24d	1	0.55mi
6707 Cedar Ridge Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,900	$1.14	15d	1	0.68mi
5733 Orange St Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	0.84mi
6716 Barnwood Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,850	$1.06	24d	1	0.86mi
6747 Weathered Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	0.90mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	1.38mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 801 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 800 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 799 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 798 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 796 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 793 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 792 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 791 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 790 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 787 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 786 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 785 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 784 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 783 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 782 DOM
16. 2025-10-15
    price $149,900
17. 2025-09-02
    price $159,900
18. 2025-03-18
    price $179,900
19. 2025-02-26
    price $189,900
20. 2025-01-06
    price $199,900
21. 2024-04-08
    listed $219,900 Active
22. 2005-02-04
    soldstatus $83,500
23. 2005-01-31
    soldstatus $83,500 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    4 bedroom home with many extras. Bonus area can be used as an office.(8x8) Living room is tiled. There is a fireplace in the family room, but the current owner hasn't used it. The ceiling in the Living is cathedral. Ceiling fans thru-out. 2002 windows replaced with Sears vinyl windows(double pane) Appliances are not the origianal (updated) Roof replaced 2004, Water heater replaced 2003 Outside Shed, 10x10 remains, but is not warranted.

24. 2004-12-11
    historical
25. 2004-12-10
    listed $84,900 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    4 bedroom home with many extras. Bonus area can be used as an office.(8x8) Living room is tiled. There is a fireplace in the family room, but the current owner hasn't used it. The ceiling in the Living is cathedral. Ceiling fans thru-out. 2002 windows replaced with Sears vinyl windows(double pane) Appliances are not the origianal (updated) Roof replaced 2004, Water heater replaced 2003 Outside Shed, 10x10 remains, but is not warranted.

26. 2004-11-24
    listed $84,900
27. 2001-12-10
    soldstatus $61,000
28. 2001-12-06
    soldstatus $61,000
29. 2001-04-21
    listed $61,000
30. 1989-09-01
    soldstatus $37,000
31. 1975-12-01
    soldstatus $27,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,473 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,473 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,473
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $5,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $6,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+439.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $149,900 PARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $159,900 PARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $179,900 PARMLS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $199,900 PARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Listed $219,900 PARMLS
• 2005-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 2005-01-31 Sold (MLS) $83,500 PARMLS
• 2004-12-11 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2004-12-10 Listed $84,900 PARMLS
• 2004-11-24 Listed $84,900 PARMLS
• 2001-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-06 Sold (MLS) $61,000 PARMLS
• 2001-04-21 Listed $61,000 PARMLS
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1975-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,473 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.