Oakridge Plan · San Antonio, TX 78219

$202,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily · 415 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $202,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $267,683.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $202k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hirsch El (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 533 students, 95% FRL); Davis Middle (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 545 students, 96% FRL, charter); Houston H S (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 856 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 80% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 415 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,085 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 415 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.23%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,683
• List price: $202,499
• Delta: -24.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 River Run Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,266 (0%)	1mo	$194,999	$154	80
526 Ambush Rdg	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+1%)	2mo	$209,000	$164	79
523 River Run Way	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	4mo	$211,999	$151	65
458 River Run Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	2mo	$200,999	$143	63
442 River Run Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	2mo	$209,999	$150	62
443 River Run Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$211,999	$151	62
410 River Run Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	1mo	$209,999	$150	62
430 River Run Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-11%)	1mo	$230,999	$205	62
503 River Run Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	4mo	$198,999	$142	61
402 River Run Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+12%)	1mo	$214,999	$152	60
427 Filibusters Trl	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+14%)	5mo	$189,900	$131	49
202 Reuben Kemper	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	2mo	$200,000	$138	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $4,122
• Equity at exit: $116,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $80,877
• Equity at exit: $176,138

Cash invested: $74,951 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78219

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,404
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,015/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,342

Max offer price $193,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-329	-5% $-422	+0% $-514	+5% $-607	+10% $-699
Rent	-10% $-648	-5% $-581	+0% $-514	+5% $-447	+10% $-381
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-446	base $-514	+0.5pp $-583	+1.0pp $-654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,921
• Closing costs: $8,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6334 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,797	$1.20	26d	1	0.02mi
627 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1776	$1,900	$1.07	26d	1	0.10mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	22d	1	0.15mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	13d	1	0.15mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$1,750	$0.95	26d	1	0.15mi
603 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,600	$1.33	26d	1	0.17mi
550 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,750	$1.45	6d	1	0.19mi
535 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,550	$0.99	6d	1	0.20mi
6102 Walnut Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1611	$1,750	$1.09	46d	1	0.20mi
518 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,550	$1.05	24d	1	0.22mi
414 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$1,800	$0.98	26d	1	0.28mi
6427 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	20d	1	0.32mi
6406 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,499	$1.03	17d	1	0.33mi
462 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,555	$1.10	26d	1	0.36mi
463 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,545	$0.97	24d	1	0.39mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	46d	1	0.40mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	26d	1	0.41mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.43mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	26d	1	0.43mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	20d	1	0.43mi
6410 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,715	$1.18	13d	1	0.43mi
242 Ambush Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,495	$1.17	26d	1	0.49mi
134 Samuel Kemper San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	14d	1	0.64mi
127 Expedition Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	26d	1	0.65mi
115 Katy Post San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1725	$1,995	$1.16	26d	1	0.68mi
5847 Tree View St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,900	$1.40	20d	1	1.12mi
6510 Poseidon Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,539	$1.09	5d	1	1.25mi
2414 Indian Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,495	$0.93	22d	1	1.33mi
2414 Indian Frst San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	1.33mi
2631 Sunset Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,650	$1.22	26d	1	1.35mi
6503 Davenport Bay Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,786	$1.20	0d	1	1.37mi
2409 Key Hole Vw Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,600	$1.00	14d	1	1.42mi
6615 Port Elizabeth Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,489	$0.93	6d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $202,499 Active 415 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,499 Active 412 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $202,499 Active 411 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $201,999 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $201,999 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $201,499 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $201,499 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $201,499 Active 403 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,999 Active 403 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,999 Active 402 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,999 Active 401 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,999 Active 398 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,999 Active 397 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,999 Active 396 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,999 Active 395 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,999 Active 394 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $200,499 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

18. 2025-09-01
    price $199,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

19. 2025-07-17
    price $209,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

20. 2025-05-06
    price $229,999 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

21. 2025-05-03
    listed $249,999 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,994
• − Property taxes: −$4,015
• − Insurance: −$1,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$7,787
• Taxable loss: −$11,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,924
• Household income: $52,094
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 27% Black 26% White 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 328.5107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $200,499 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $209,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2025-05-03 Listed $249,999 Zillow