24701 Raymond #195 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$289,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 24 ac lot Est $222k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious and inviting home located in the highly desirable Prothero Mobile Estates, a premier 55+ community. Offering approximately 1,760 square feet of living space, this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a versatile floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living. Inside, you'll find two generous living areas, providing ample space for entertaining, relaxing, or pursuing your favorite hobbies. The spacious primary suite serves as a private retreat and features a dedicated dressing area, dual sinks, a walk-in shower, and a relaxing sunken tub. The guest bedroom and adjacent guest bathroom offer comfortable accommodations for family and friends. Large windows provide abundant natural light throughout the home, while the thoughtful layout offers both functionality and comfort. Residents of Prothero Mobile Estates enjoy an active and welcoming lifestyle with exceptional community amenities, including a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, tennis courts, billiards room , card room and clubhouse! Conveniently located near shopping, dining, close to the 5 freeway, and everyday conveniences, this home offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and community living. Don't miss this opportunity to enjoy resort-style living in one of the area's most sought-after 55+ communities. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Sunken tub
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• TWO GENEROUS LIVING AREAS
• DEDICATED DRESSING AREA
• DUAL SINKS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SUNKEN TUB
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Prothero Mobile Estates; Triple body type (multi-unit info); Pets: contact for details
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,220 (land lease applies)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Curbs and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Prothero Mobile Estates
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level: 1; Corner home (per directions)
• Construction: Composition roof; Mobile home (30' x 60') — mobile home remains; Year built source: public records
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Association pool; Association spa

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Front entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $285k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ralph A. Gates Dli Magnet Elementary (940 students, 62% FRL); Los Alisos Intermediate (656 students, 74% FRL); Mission Viejo High (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #190 of 1,170 statewide, top 17%, 1,646 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 22% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $248k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $284,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,230
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: 35.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24701 Raymond Ave #120	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608	2mo	$375,000	$233	81
24701 Raymond Way #39	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440	5mo	$202,500	$141	76
24701 Raymond Way #74	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,776	2mo	$319,000	$180	72
24921 Muirlands Blvd #23	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,488	2mo	$199,000	$134	69
24701 Raymond Way #81	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660	6mo	$333,000	$201	69
24921 Muirlands Blvd #28	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440	1mo	$170,000	$118	69
24921 Muirlands #13	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440	4mo	$175,000	$122	68
24921 Muirlands blvd #78	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,570	3mo	$224,000	$143	67
24921 Muirlands Blvd #209	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440	1mo	$152,500	$106	67
24921 Muirlands Blvd #265	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440	2mo	$185,000	$128	66
24921 Muirlands Blvd #58	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440	0mo	$254,000	$176	66
24921 Muirlands Blvd #236	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	—	4mo	$341,000	—	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-28,987
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,106
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,528

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $402	+0% $302	+5% $202	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $187	+0% $302	+5% $417	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $375	base $302	+0.5pp $227	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23422 Dune Mear Rd Lake Forest, CA	3.0	1.0	—	$1,000	—	9d	1	0.46mi
23288 Orange Ave #4 Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.0	685	$2,200	$3.21	6d	1	0.53mi
23236 Orange Ave Lake Forest, CA	2.0	1.0	834	$3,000	$3.60	4d	1	0.55mi
23232 Orange Ave #2 Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.0	685	$2,300	$3.36	26d	1	0.56mi
23250 Orange Ave Lake Forest, CA	2.0	2.0	947	$2,995	$3.16	26d	1	0.60mi
24391 Avenida de la Carlota Laguna Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,965	$4.14	0d	19	0.72mi
23296 Buckland Ln Unit A Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$1,250	—	23d	1	0.76mi
23296 Buckland Ln Rm D2 Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$1,550	—	20d	1	0.76mi
2119 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	—	$2,600	—	20d	1	0.81mi
24552 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Hills, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$2,600	—	6d	15	0.83mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,278	$3.72	0d	5	0.83mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$3,250	$3.21	17d	1	0.88mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	1.0	1.0	739	$2,515	$3.40	9d	1	0.88mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1007	$3,356	$3.33	45d	1	0.88mi
2049 Via Mariposa E Unit H Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	866	$2,900	$3.35	45d	1	0.89mi
132 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	995	$2,400	$2.41	8d	1	0.92mi
24251 Muirlands Blvd Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.0	630	$1,000	$1.59	45d	1	0.94mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	4d	9	0.96mi
2238 Via Puerta Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	1.0	1.0	679	$2,350	$3.46	45d	1	0.97mi
2210 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$2,000	$3.45	23d	1	0.98mi
158 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	45d	1	0.99mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	26d	1	0.99mi
24299 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$3,770	$2.80	23d	7	1.01mi
6 Quinn Way Mission Viejo, CA	3.0	3.5	1716	$4,100	$2.39	22d	1	1.02mi
254 Calle Aragon Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$3,000	$2.97	19d	1	1.03mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,200	$2.42	20d	1	1.04mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	26d	1	1.04mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	45d	1	1.04mi
62 Aliso Ridge Loop Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1560	$3,795	$2.43	26d	1	1.04mi
170 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	26d	1	1.04mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	14d	1	1.05mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	45d	1	1.05mi
169 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	45d	1	1.05mi
74 Calle Aragon Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,700	$2.84	26d	1	1.05mi
969 Calle Aragon Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,900	$2.43	26d	1	1.05mi
205 Avenida Majorca Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,600	$2.82	45d	1	1.06mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1305	$4,000	$3.07	45d	1	1.08mi
29 Calle Aragon Unit Q Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,100	$2.98	45d	1	1.09mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	20d	1	1.09mi
46 Calle Aragon Unit R Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,800	$2.69	20d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    listing id $289,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $289,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $300,000 Active 548-char remark
16. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus $247,500 Closed Sale 339-char remark
17. 2025-06-16
    historical Active Under Contract 339-char remark
18. 2025-05-29
    price $255,000 339-char remark
19. 2025-03-18
    price $264,000 339-char remark
20. 2025-02-19
    status Active 339-char remark
21. 2025-01-25
    historical Active Under Contract 339-char remark
22. 2024-12-24
    listed $265,000 Active 339-char remark
23. 2011-08-23
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed
24. 2011-08-19
    status Pending
25. 2011-08-17
    historical
26. 2011-08-17
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed
27. 2011-08-02
    status Pending
28. 2011-07-22
    price $75,000
29. 2011-05-11
    price $82,500
30. 2010-11-01
    listed $85,275 Active
31. 2006-09-14
    soldstatus $127,500
32. 2006-07-03
    listed $129,000
33. 2005-06-24
    soldstatus $115,500
34. 2005-04-19
    listed $119,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,794
• − Management: −$2,794
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$1,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$250
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+141.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $289,000 TCMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $300,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-25 Sold (MLS) $247,500 CRMLS
• 2025-06-16 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $264,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-19 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-01-25 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-12-24 Listed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2011-08-23 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2011-08-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-08-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-08-17 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2011-08-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2011-07-22 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2011-05-11 Price Changed $82,500 CRMLS
• 2010-11-01 Listed $85,275 CRMLS
• 2006-09-14 Sold (MLS) $127,500 CRMLS
• 2006-07-03 Listed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2005-06-24 Sold (MLS) $115,500 CRMLS
• 2005-04-19 Listed $119,750 CRMLS

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $33 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.