1405 Vegas Valley Dr #213 · Winchester, NV 89169

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 951 sqft · Condo public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1971 $355/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

First floor condo with community pool & spa; close to Sunrise Hospital and Boulevard Mall; laminate & tile flooring; granite countertops; coin operated laundry facility in the community.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Spa
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPA
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COIN OPERATED LAUNDRY FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#3 in NV, #2,272 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Clark County School District (urban): math 21% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #11 of 17 in NV (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.4%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 14,754 units permitted in Clark County in 2024 (2,301 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,878/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 2744% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clark County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $125k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.06%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,320
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,534
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89169

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $485/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$355
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,396

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $416	+0% $381	+5% $346	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $307	+0% $381	+5% $455	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $413	base $381	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 E Desert Inn Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,800	$1.67	45d	5	0.63mi
2831 Geary Pl #2909 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	1112	$1,899	$1.71	45d	1	0.88mi
3152 S Eastern Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	25d	1	0.90mi
3168 S Eastern Ave #48 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.0	671	$1,050	$1.56	25d	1	0.91mi
1040 Canosa Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	969	$1,745	$1.80	45d	1	1.03mi
1601 E Katie Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,852	$2.29	45d	13	1.06mi
511 E Sahara Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	45d	3	1.09mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	5d	3	1.10mi
322 Karen Ave Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1109	$3,500	$3.15	4d	3	1.10mi
1700 E Viking Rd Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,662	$1.53	45d	3	1.12mi
595 S Royal Crest Cir #18 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.0	816	$1,575	$1.93	45d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #306 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,300	$2.83	45d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #2904 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,200	$2.70	3d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #3005 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,400	$2.95	25d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #3203 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	2.0	814	$2,500	$3.07	45d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #1105 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$1,990	$2.44	45d	1	1.18mi
222 Karen Ave #1004 Las Vegas, NV	1.0	1.5	814	$2,300	$2.83	25d	1	1.18mi
1021 Griffith Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	2.0	1094	$2,200	$2.01	45d	1	1.26mi
3550 Paradise Rd Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$1,425	$1.50	45d	20	1.28mi
525 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,525	$1.39	45d	1	1.32mi
3930 University Center Dr Las Vegas, NV	2.0	2.0–3.0	1200	$1,725	$1.44	45d	2	1.33mi
2137 E Saint Louis Ave Las Vegas, NV	3.0	1.0	1028	$1,700	$1.65	45d	1	1.34mi
818 E Flamingo Rd Las Vegas, NV	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1158	$2,895	$2.50	3d	34	1.47mi
350 E Desert Inn Rd Unit H203 Las Vegas, NV	2.0	1.5	849	$1,725	$2.03	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $355 · $4,260/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-06
    listed $125,000 Active 198-char remark

    Show marketing remark (198 chars)

    First floor condo with community pool & spa; close to Sunrise Hospital and Boulevard Mall; laminate & tile flooring; granite countertops; coin operated laundry facility in the community.

15. 1987-10-19
    soldstatus $52,000
16. 1986-04-15
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$252/yr (+$21/mo · 52.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$485
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − HOA: −$4,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$702
• After-tax cash flow: $3,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clark County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200060
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,611
• Composite: 26.48/100
• National rank: #7211
• State rank: #11 of 17 in NV

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #2272

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, NV
• County: Clark County · 2,306,105 people
• City population: 39,883
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• Population (ZIP): 22,171
• Household income: $40,904
• Rent vs Own: 80.7% rent · 19.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2744.0

Population outlook (Clark County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,504,101 people
• By 2030: 2,693,770 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 3,061,208 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 3,400,072 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 4,139,522 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 4,596,916 · +83.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 33% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clark

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.4% · R 47.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+10.7 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.91%
• Current HPI: 272.6449
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.43%
• Metro: Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

+160.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $125,000 GLVAR
• 1987-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1986-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.