651 Mica Rd · Ridgeway, VA 24148

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1948 0.32 ac lot $99/sqft · 19% below area Est $198k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New England-style house, well-maintained, and located in a desirable area. Did repairs to make it bank saleable

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Manageable lot size
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED PORCH
• MANAGEABLE LOT SIZE
• EASY ACCESS TO RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Located in the Ridgeway subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Cable available

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#215 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $110k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,423 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,922
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -44.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Roosevelt Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+13%)	10mo	$112,000	$90	50
141 Eisenhower Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+7%)	8mo	$142,180	$120	48
215 Wickersham Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+11%)	4mo	$259,000	$210	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,028
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,314
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24148

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $818

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $110,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $115,000 Active 1355-char remark
18. 2026-01-26
    price $99,900
19. 2025-12-02
    listed $115,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    New England-style house, well-maintained, and located in a desirable area. Did repairs to make it bank saleable

20. 2025-10-18
    price $115,000
21. 2025-09-25
    status Active
22. 2025-09-25
    price $110,000
23. 2025-07-16
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-07-03
    listed $84,900 Active
25. 2023-02-22
    historical
26. 2022-08-03
    price $94,000
27. 2022-02-16
    listed $94,000 Active
28. 2022-02-16
    listed $94,000 Active
29. 2022-02-16
    listed $89,000 Active
30. 2019-07-26
    listed $69,900
31. 2018-01-24
    soldstatus $46,201
32. 2017-10-18
    listed $64,000
33. 2017-01-06
    soldstatus $15,450
34. 2016-05-17
    listed $37,800
35. 2014-11-20
    listed $64,900
36. 2009-01-30
    soldstatus $64,050
37. 2008-11-13
    listed $69,900
38. 2000-02-25
    soldstatus $60,500
39. 1999-11-29
    listed $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $285 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 216.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,579
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #2345
• State rank: #78 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ridgeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #7012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,528

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,903 people
• By 2030: 44,141 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 38,687 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 33,742 · -28.1%
• By 2075: 25,720 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 19,868 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.3% · R 66.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.33%
• Current HPI: 170.9641
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+76.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $110,000 MHPCAR
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — MHPCAR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — MHPCAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $115,000 MHPCAR
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $99,900 MHPCAR
• 2025-12-02 Listed $115,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $115,000 MHPCAR
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — MHPCAR
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $110,000 MHPCAR
• 2025-07-16 Contingent — MHPCAR
• 2025-07-03 Listed $84,900 MHPCAR
• 2023-02-22 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2022-08-03 Price Changed $94,000 MLSRV
• 2022-02-16 Listed $89,000 MLSRV
• 2022-02-16 Listed $94,000 DRRAR
• 2022-02-16 Listed $94,000 MHPCAR
• 2019-07-26 Listed $69,900 MHPCAR
• 2018-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $46,201 Public Records
• 2017-10-18 Listed $64,000 MHPCAR
• 2017-01-06 Sold (MLS) $15,450 MHPCAR
• 2016-05-17 Listed $37,800 MHPCAR
• 2014-11-20 Listed $64,900 MHPCAR
• 2009-01-30 Sold (MLS) $64,050 MHPCAR
• 2008-11-13 Listed $69,900 MHPCAR
• 2000-02-25 Sold (MLS) $60,500 MHPCAR
• 1999-11-29 Listed $62,500 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $285 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.