3644 Moon Hill Rd · New Braunfels, TX 78124

$215,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · Land · 265 Days on market

Built 2025 4,486 sqft lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home this fall season! Built in April 2025, this nearly new Highgate floorplan is truly one-of-a-kind—currently, there are no plans to build another like it in this neighborhood, making this an exclusive opportunity you won’t want to miss. With 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a versatile loft, this two-story beauty blends modern design with cozy charm. The primary suite, tucked away on the first floor, is your own private retreat complete with a luxurious ensuite bath and oversized walk-in closet—perfect for unwinding after a crisp autumn evening. Upstairs, three secondary bedrooms encircle a flexible loft space, ready to be transformed into a

Key facts

• 4,486 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 265 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $172,610 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,490
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-44,650
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,015/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $196,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3707 Moon Hill Rd Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,550	$1.14	4d	1	0.05mi
3729 Wentz Hill Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	16d	1	0.10mi
3645 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	43d	1	0.13mi
754 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	0.17mi
3738 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	14d	1	0.19mi
742 Tower Hill Vw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	2d	1	0.19mi
751 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	23d	1	0.27mi
740 Bullsnake Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	43d	1	0.27mi
722 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$3,200	$2.51	43d	1	0.32mi
755 Wonderland Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$1,699	$0.88	4d	1	0.35mi
755 Wonderland Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1937	$1,699	$0.88	16d	1	0.35mi
713 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	43d	1	0.35mi
3939 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,800	$0.76	43d	1	0.42mi
3939 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,799	$0.76	12d	1	0.42mi
3953 Prairie Crk New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,200	$0.89	11d	1	0.43mi
3951 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,100	$0.85	1d	1	0.44mi
3889 Northhaven Trl Santa Clara, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,680	$0.88	43d	1	0.44mi
3936 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$1,897	$0.81	43d	1	0.52mi
3964 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,050	$0.83	11d	1	0.56mi
3967 Cherokee Blvd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,695	$1.19	23d	1	0.66mi
4028 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$2,100	$0.89	1d	1	0.68mi
4019 Belden Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,870	$0.79	12d	1	0.71mi
4171 River Legacy Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,570	$1.20	23d	1	0.74mi
950 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,900	$0.81	43d	1	0.79mi
914 Shady Holw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,900	$0.81	23d	1	0.80mi
906 Shady Holw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	23d	1	0.80mi
946 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	23d	1	0.80mi
962 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	23d	1	0.80mi
810 Shady Brk Marion, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$1,830	$0.74	20d	1	0.81mi
3200 Falconhead New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2076	$2,500	$1.20	1d	1	0.88mi
3161 Birch Bnd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2622	$2,500	$0.95	1d	1	0.97mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 4x New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.5	1776	$1,780	$1.00	4d	1	1.14mi
2700 Farm to Market Road 1044 Unit 3-3x New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,611	$1.08	4d	1	1.14mi
2960 Nicholas Cv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	1d	1	1.22mi
772 Vista Pkwy New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,750	$1.14	23d	1	1.23mi
3143 Douglas Fir Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,325	$0.97	14d	1	1.44mi
410 S Water Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1963	$1,900	$0.97	43d	1	1.47mi
1972 Bluethroat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,795	$1.15	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   price $215,000
3. 2025-09-28
   price $230,000
4. 2025-09-13
   price $238,000
5. 2025-08-05
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,015 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$920/yr (+$77/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,015
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,988
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $-59/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 144,962
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $215,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $230,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $238,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $250,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+294.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,015 · +2147.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.