4930 State Route 11 · Altona, NY 12935

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1886 1.10 ac lot Est $201k · 18% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nice home that has been well maintained over the years large downstairs with a full bathroom and laundry area. Home sits on the conrer of Route 11 and Con road with a nice large back yard with 120 ft on the river giving you time to sit and relaz

Key facts

• Laundry area
• Full bathroom
• 120 ft on the river

Tags

• FULL BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY AREA
• LARGE BACK YARD
• 120 FT ON THE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,166 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Northern Adirondack Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #430 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1886 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,216 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1886 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,970
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4921 Route 11	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+13%)	5mo	$227,500	$145	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $45,273
• Equity at exit: $108,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $137,434
• Equity at exit: $200,798

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12935

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $144,911

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-07
   price $164,000
3. 2025-07-03
   listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,447 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$4,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $-294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern Adirondack Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621260
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,656
• Composite: 40.62/100
• National rank: #3689
• State rank: #430 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altona

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25387

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,159

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,791 people
• By 2030: 76,848 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 71,579 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 66,471 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 57,361 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 47,232 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 23% German 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.9% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+5.2 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+25.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.49%
• Current HPI: 303.7051
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $164,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $169,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,122 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.