7513 Desert Needle Dr · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$324,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2020 6,098 sqft lot $138/sqft · 37% below area Est $514k · 37% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open and bright. Kitchen open to family. The primary bedroom is downstairs. Nice covered patio with a deck and view. Dedicated office space on first floor. Upstairs is a spacious loft and secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Spacious loft
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• SPACIOUS LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,625 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $514,483
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -36.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8119 Prairie Rye Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,359 (+0%)	3mo	$435,000	$184	80
22610 Maidengrass Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,240 (-5%)	4mo	$439,000	$196	75
22600 Fountaingrass Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,104 (-10%)	4mo	$385,000	$183	68
22913 Agave Grove Dr	0.33mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,395 (+2%)	3mo	$355,000	$148	68
7908 Autumn Moor Bnd	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,562 (+9%)	6mo	$400,000	$156	65
7901 Tessera Pkwy	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,299 (-2%)	4mo	$649,000	$282	61
8006 Shining Flor Run	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,261 (-4%)	4mo	$379,900	$168	57
8015 Shining Flor Run	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,261 (-4%)	6mo	$389,900	$172	54
8109 Royal Mint Cv	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,285 (-3%)	6mo	$424,990	$186	52
22809 Golden Daisy Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,103 (-10%)	6mo	$413,070	$196	49
8013 Shining Flor Run	0.59mi	3/3.5	2,078 (-12%)	3mo	$369,900	$178	45
8317 Royal Elflower Rd	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,530 (+8%)	6mo	$449,900	$178	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,193
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-121,886
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1107
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,666 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$754 /mo · $9,052/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,378

Max offer price $225,625

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-378	-5% $-470	+0% $-562	+5% $-654	+10% $-746
Rent	-10% $-773	-5% $-667	+0% $-562	+5% $-457	+10% $-351
Rate	-1.0pp $-398	-0.5pp $-479	base $-562	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7609 Turnback Ledge Trl Lago Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,990	$1.22	0d	1	0.28mi
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	7d	1	0.36mi
22419 Red Sage Cv Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,800	$1.35	46d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $324,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $324,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,900 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,900 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $354,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Open and bright. Kitchen open to family. The primary bedroom is downstairs. Nice covered patio with a deck and view. Dedicated office space on first floor. Upstairs is a spacious loft and secondary bedrooms.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $369,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Open and bright. Kitchen open to family. The primary bedroom is downstairs. Nice covered patio with a deck and view. Dedicated office space on first floor. Upstairs is a spacious loft and secondary bedrooms.

19. 2023-02-03
    soldstatus
20. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus 1578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1578 chars)

    Welcome to 7513 Desert Needle! This popular Highland plan is functional, open, and bright. This charming, two story has been meticulously maintained by the original owners and lives like a brand new home. Enjoy the owner's suite privately tucked away downstairs. Find a room and powder bath downstairs that makes for a dual-purpose study and guest bedroom (technically a study as it doesn't have a closet). This 2-car garage is one of the ONLY garages in the Lakeside in Tessera community that can easily store a boat. This feature is incredibly special for Tessera residents and allows one to make the most of living along Lake Travis; a unique opportunity and fantastic feature for resale! Soak up glimpses of Lake Travis (depending on lake levels) in the spacious upstairs game room. Utilize all of the storage opportunities throughout! Other features include ample windows, white cabinets, extended outdoor living area, a spacious front patio, wonderful storage, rain shower head, upgraded balusters looking out to the first floor, and a full sprinkler system. The homesite backs to green space with easy access to Lake Travis and is tucked along a private street. A must see! Buyer to verify all MLS INFO., Association Fee Includes: Common Area Maintenance, Cooling: Electric, Main Level Bedrooms: 2, Ownership Type: Fee Simple, Parking Features: Attached, Water Body Name: Lake Travis, Tax Rate: 2.48, Office Features: See Remarks, LivingRoom Features: See Remarks, Kitchen Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBathroom Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBedroom Features: See Remarks

21. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (1578 chars)

    Welcome to 7513 Desert Needle! This popular Highland plan is functional, open, and bright. This charming, two story has been meticulously maintained by the original owners and lives like a brand new home. Enjoy the owner's suite privately tucked away downstairs. Find a room and powder bath downstairs that makes for a dual-purpose study and guest bedroom (technically a study as it doesn't have a closet). This 2-car garage is one of the ONLY garages in the Lakeside in Tessera community that can easily store a boat. This feature is incredibly special for Tessera residents and allows one to make the most of living along Lake Travis; a unique opportunity and fantastic feature for resale! Soak up glimpses of Lake Travis (depending on lake levels) in the spacious upstairs game room. Utilize all of the storage opportunities throughout! Other features include ample windows, white cabinets, extended outdoor living area, a spacious front patio, wonderful storage, rain shower head, upgraded balusters looking out to the first floor, and a full sprinkler system. The homesite backs to green space with easy access to Lake Travis and is tucked along a private street. A must see! Buyer to verify all MLS INFO., Association Fee Includes: Common Area Maintenance, Cooling: Electric, Main Level Bedrooms: 2, Ownership Type: Fee Simple, Parking Features: Attached, Water Body Name: Lake Travis, Tax Rate: 2.48, Office Features: See Remarks, LivingRoom Features: See Remarks, Kitchen Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBathroom Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBedroom Features: See Remarks

22. 2023-01-11
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2023-01-10
    price $499,000
24. 2022-12-10
    price $545,000
25. 2022-10-27
    price $549,900
26. 2022-10-18
    price $594,000
27. 2022-09-15
    listed $499,000 1578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1578 chars)

    Welcome to 7513 Desert Needle! This popular Highland plan is functional, open, and bright. This charming, two story has been meticulously maintained by the original owners and lives like a brand new home. Enjoy the owner's suite privately tucked away downstairs. Find a room and powder bath downstairs that makes for a dual-purpose study and guest bedroom (technically a study as it doesn't have a closet). This 2-car garage is one of the ONLY garages in the Lakeside in Tessera community that can easily store a boat. This feature is incredibly special for Tessera residents and allows one to make the most of living along Lake Travis; a unique opportunity and fantastic feature for resale! Soak up glimpses of Lake Travis (depending on lake levels) in the spacious upstairs game room. Utilize all of the storage opportunities throughout! Other features include ample windows, white cabinets, extended outdoor living area, a spacious front patio, wonderful storage, rain shower head, upgraded balusters looking out to the first floor, and a full sprinkler system. The homesite backs to green space with easy access to Lake Travis and is tucked along a private street. A must see! Buyer to verify all MLS INFO., Association Fee Includes: Common Area Maintenance, Cooling: Electric, Main Level Bedrooms: 2, Ownership Type: Fee Simple, Parking Features: Attached, Water Body Name: Lake Travis, Tax Rate: 2.48, Office Features: See Remarks, LivingRoom Features: See Remarks, Kitchen Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBathroom Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBedroom Features: See Remarks

28. 2022-09-15
    listed $599,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1578 chars)

    Welcome to 7513 Desert Needle! This popular Highland plan is functional, open, and bright. This charming, two story has been meticulously maintained by the original owners and lives like a brand new home. Enjoy the owner's suite privately tucked away downstairs. Find a room and powder bath downstairs that makes for a dual-purpose study and guest bedroom (technically a study as it doesn't have a closet). This 2-car garage is one of the ONLY garages in the Lakeside in Tessera community that can easily store a boat. This feature is incredibly special for Tessera residents and allows one to make the most of living along Lake Travis; a unique opportunity and fantastic feature for resale! Soak up glimpses of Lake Travis (depending on lake levels) in the spacious upstairs game room. Utilize all of the storage opportunities throughout! Other features include ample windows, white cabinets, extended outdoor living area, a spacious front patio, wonderful storage, rain shower head, upgraded balusters looking out to the first floor, and a full sprinkler system. The homesite backs to green space with easy access to Lake Travis and is tucked along a private street. A must see! Buyer to verify all MLS INFO., Association Fee Includes: Common Area Maintenance, Cooling: Electric, Main Level Bedrooms: 2, Ownership Type: Fee Simple, Parking Features: Attached, Water Body Name: Lake Travis, Tax Rate: 2.48, Office Features: See Remarks, LivingRoom Features: See Remarks, Kitchen Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBathroom Features: See Remarks, PrimaryBedroom Features: See Remarks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,052 · $754/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,052 · $754/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$9,052
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$12,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,964
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $354,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $369,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2023-01-11 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-01-10 Price Changed $499,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-12-10 Price Changed $545,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-27 Price Changed $549,900 Unlock MLS
• 2022-10-18 Price Changed $594,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $499,000 LERA
• 2022-09-15 Listed $599,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+45.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $9,052 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.