Lucas Plan · Laguna Beach, FL 32461

$489,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lucas floorplan is designed with versatility and functionality in mind. Featuring two included bedrooms, it offers the option to transform Bedroom 2 into a private study to suit your lifestyle. The owners suite includes a large walk-in closet with an optional connection to the laundry room for added convenience. Natural light flows throughout the home, thanks to optional side windows that brighten the entry and living spaces. The spacious kitchen seamlessly connects to the dining and family rooms, extending to the extra-large covered patio for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The included family foyer provides a convenient drop zone, with options for a bench and storage. For easy enter

Key facts

• Private study
• Large walk-in closet
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA-LARGE COVERED PATIO
• INCLUDED FAMILY FOYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 320 Suwannee Dr, Inlet Beach, FL 32461; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $489,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Lucas) in Inlet Beach, FL; New construction inventory type: Plan
• Construction: New construction (plan name: Lucas)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,418 (interior measurement not shown in room details)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Lucas)

🏗️ New construction. The $489,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $611,158.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $380k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 722 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,235 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.55%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $611,158
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Bunting Ln Lot 71	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	9mo	$625,000	$431	84
141 Green Heron St Lot 66	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	4mo	$646,650	$415	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $23,168
• Equity at exit: $312,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $161,410
• Equity at exit: $512,282

Cash invested: $171,124 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32461

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 722
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,802 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$764 /mo · $9,167/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $-1,345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,505

Max offer price $416,545

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-923	-5% $-1,134	+0% $-1,345	+5% $-1,556	+10% $-1,767
Rent	-10% $-1,645	-5% $-1,495	+0% $-1,345	+5% $-1,195	+10% $-1,045
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,037	-0.5pp $-1,189	base $-1,345	+0.5pp $-1,503	+1.0pp $-1,664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,790
• Closing costs: $18,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 Suwannee Dr Inlet Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$3,500	$2.43	15d	1	0.04mi
323 Suwannee Dr Unit 72A Inlet Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1442	$4,000	$2.77	22d	1	0.05mi
40 Blue Stream Way Inlet Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,342	$2.39	14d	11	0.76mi
48 E Lafayette Rd Inlet Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,700	$2.18	15d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $489,995 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,995 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,995 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,995 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,995 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $489,995 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,995 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $489,995 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,995 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $489,995 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $489,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,234
• − Property taxes: −$9,167
• − Insurance: −$4,558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,650
• − Management: −$3,650
• − Depreciation: −$17,779
• Taxable loss: −$27,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Laguna Beach

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #4522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,757
• Household income: $145,706
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 67.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Current HPI: 346.4019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B