1604 Calhoun Ave · Panama City, FL 32405

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1992 Est $281k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

We have owned this home for many years. It has been a true blessing to live in it just remodeled the whole home very modern very Homie. Would love to show you.

Key facts

• Built 1992
• Listed 38 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $220k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,913 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.58%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,952
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Calhoun Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (+2%)	10mo	$285,000	$203	74
1706 Calhoun Ave	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,404 (+1%)	19mo	$225,000	$160	68
1403 Fortune Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+1%)	14mo	$290,000	$207	62
1903 Chestnut Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-6%)	18mo	$180,000	$138	44
1712 Wilmont Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,211 (-12%)	22mo	$230,000	$190	35
2209 W 21st St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (-10%)	19mo	$269,900	$218	33
1303 Fairy Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	22mo	$279,000	$233	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,184
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,714
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,671

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	21d	1	0.24mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	21d	1	0.28mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	21d	1	0.58mi
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.06mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	13d	1	1.15mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $220,000 Active 159-char remark
19. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus $49,000
20. 1993-05-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$927/yr (+$77/mo · 103.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $3,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+633.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.