104 Silent Sky Ln · Hutto, TX 78634

$236,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot Est $274k · 14% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Timms - This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner’s suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-152/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Hutto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in TX, #2,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Hutto ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #438 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 1039 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,910 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Evening Glow Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,500 (0%)	0mo	$236,999	$158	98
101 Evening Glow Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$252,990	$169	98
220 Skyfire St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	3mo	$275,990	$172	82
502 Firedance Ct	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	1mo	$287,990	$183	78
313 Dragonfly Park	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	1mo	$265,990	$190	77
517 Stratus Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-2%)	1mo	$275,990	$187	73
316 Dragonfly Park	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+14%)	1mo	$283,990	$166	71
209 Skyfire St	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+14%)	4mo	$330,990	$194	69
522 Firedance Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	1mo	$266,990	$189	66
312 Dragonfly Park	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	1mo	$285,999	$172	62
513 Stratus Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	1mo	$289,990	$174	62
98 Barton Creek Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$189	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-45,577
• Equity at exit: $35,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-65,310
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78634

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 1039
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $235,167

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $69	+0% $-13	+5% $-95	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-187	-5% $-100	+0% $-13	+5% $75	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $48	base $-13	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Painted Night Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$2,099	$1.05	45d	1	0.29mi
313 Stratus LN Hutto, TX	5.0	3.0	2171	$2,125	$0.98	5d	1	0.43mi
518 Firedance CT Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$1,995	$1.07	16d	1	0.43mi
207 Flowers Ave Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1892	$2,000	$1.06	45d	1	0.66mi
202 Doodle Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2015	$2,150	$1.07	25d	1	0.69mi
208 Flowers Ave Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$2,600	$1.81	13d	1	0.76mi
125 Watkinville Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	2015	$2,200	$1.09	25d	1	0.78mi
517 Emory Crossing Blvd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1497	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.83mi
112 Watkinville Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1734	$1,900	$1.10	45d	1	0.83mi
217 Greens Bayou Trl Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,100	$1.14	6d	1	0.87mi
110 Fort Clark Springs Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,100	$1.14	18d	1	0.88mi
201 Betsy Rd Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,995	$1.53	19d	1	0.91mi
306 Stinchcomb Rd Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,550	$1.31	45d	1	0.98mi
121 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	0.98mi
125 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,000	$1.10	18d	1	1.00mi
132 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,995	$1.18	45d	1	1.00mi
207 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$1,995	$1.08	45d	1	1.06mi
112 Holmby Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,299	$1.12	45d	1	1.07mi
128 Big Sandy Creek Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	2035	$2,300	$1.13	45d	1	1.08mi
122 Holmby Dr Hutto, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,350	$1.17	19d	1	1.09mi
231 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1839	$2,290	$1.25	19d	1	1.14mi
3333 County Road 119 Hutto, TX	4.0	2.5	1802	$1,950	$1.08	4d	1	1.16mi
235 Sweetwater Creek Ln Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,850	$1.26	19d	1	1.16mi
124 Carrington St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,965	$1.13	6d	1	1.19mi
211 Almquist St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,850	$1.10	25d	1	1.20mi
207 Brown St Hutto, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,950	$1.15	6d	1	1.26mi
95 Emory Crossing Blvd Hutto, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1120	$2,514	$2.24	0d	52	1.34mi
209 Phillips St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,900	$0.99	25d	1	1.37mi
106 Phillips St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1930	$1,895	$0.98	14d	1	1.43mi
106 Phillips St Hutto, TX	3.0	2.5	1930	$1,895	$0.98	25d	1	1.43mi
111 Lyrebird Ln Hutto, TX	5.0	2.5	2211	$3,800	$1.72	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 520-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $236,999 Pending 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,121
• − Management: −$2,121
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$4,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hutto ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $72,961
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5501
• State rank: #438 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hutto

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2794

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 46,413
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,413
• Household income: $114,426
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.56%
• Current HPI: 194.2221
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B