1018 Noe St · San Francisco, CA 94114

$1,429,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · Condo public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1900 $637/sqft · 35% below area Est $1986k · 28% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huge Price Reduction! A rare large-footprint condominium with a detached cottage, thoughtfully incorporated into the unit, ideal for a guest suite, home office, au pair, or extended family living. Delivered vacant, this property presents a compelling value-add opportunity for an owner-user or developer to renovate and reposition meaningful square footage in one of Noe Valley's most desirable pockets. Steps from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, top-rated schools, and neighborhood cafs and boutiques. This residence can be purchased individually or as part of a rare multi-unit offering. The three available condominiums, 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, are currently offered together at a combined price of $2,500,000, presenting a unique opportunity for investors, multi-generational living, or those seeking long-term value. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, allowing for expanded ownership and scale in a highly sought-after location.

Key facts

• Detached cottage
• Tree-lined block
• Guest suite

Tags

• DETACHED COTTAGE
• GUEST SUITE
• HOME OFFICE
• EXTENDED FAMILY ACCOMMODATION
• VALUE-ADD OPPORTUNITY
• TREE-LINED BLOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $1.43M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.39M (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.05M (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.05M (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,499/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $146k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $136k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$234k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.34M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $429k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,049,921 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,985,550
• List price: $1,429,000
• Delta: -28.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.51% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $772,717
• Equity at exit: $1,236,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $2,409,783
• Equity at exit: $2,613,621

Cash invested: $400,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94114

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,494
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,790/yr
• Insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,205
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,745

Max offer price $1,394,724

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $210	+0% $-194	+5% $-598	+10% $-1,003
Rent	-10% $-1,023	-5% $-609	+0% $-194	+5% $221	+10% $635
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $169	base $-194	+0.5pp $-564	+1.0pp $-941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $357,250
• Closing costs: $42,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1059 Noe St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	2545	$14,000	$5.50	44d	1	0.07mi
753 Castro St San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2467	$10,950	$4.44	44d	1	0.29mi
4058 20th St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1794	$13,975	$7.79	24d	1	0.35mi
2 Fair Oaks St #4 San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1513	$9,900	$6.54	19d	1	0.47mi
270 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	2024	$6,995	$3.46	3d	1	0.49mi
65 High St Unit NA San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2315	$9,950	$4.30	44d	1	0.69mi
1626 Noe St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1870	$12,000	$6.42	24d	1	0.70mi
143 Corbett Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$10,500	$4.20	44d	1	0.78mi
569-571 Capp St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1600	$6,995	$4.37	3d	1	0.85mi
79 Coleridge St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$9,750	$5.27	24d	1	0.92mi
61 Marview Way San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1581	$8,450	$5.34	24d	1	1.00mi
61 Marview Way San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1581	$8,200	$5.19	8d	1	1.00mi
22 Mountview Ct San Francisco, CA	4.0	2.0	1900	$7,400	$3.89	44d	1	1.06mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	14d	1	1.12mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$12,500	$5.68	24d	1	1.12mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	11d	1	1.12mi
830 Alabama St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1465	$9,500	$6.48	44d	1	1.17mi
471 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2140	$11,000	$5.14	15d	1	1.19mi
1265 Stanyan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2005	$13,900	$6.93	8d	1	1.21mi
82 Parnassus Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1701	$2,800	$1.65	2d	1	1.27mi
13 Warren Dr San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	1900	$8,750	$4.61	44d	1	1.34mi
1436 Waller St Unit 1436 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$6,890	$3.83	44d	1	1.41mi
1306 Page St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$11,995	$8.00	44d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,429,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,429,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,429,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,429,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,429,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,429,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $1,429,000 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! A rare large-footprint condominium with a detached cottage, thoughtfully incorporated into the unit, ideal for a guest suite, home office, au pair, or extended family living. Delivered vacant, this property presents a compelling value-add opportunity for an owner-user or developer to renovate and reposition meaningful square footage in one of Noe Valley's most desirable pockets. Steps from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, top-rated schools, and neighborhood cafs and boutiques. This residence can be purchased individually or as part of a rare multi-unit offering. The three available condominiums, 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, are currently offered together at a combined price of $2,500,000, presenting a unique opportunity for investors, multi-generational living, or those seeking long-term value. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, allowing for expanded ownership and scale in a highly sought-after location.

16. 2026-05-03
    price $1,858,000 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! A rare large-footprint condominium with a detached cottage, thoughtfully incorporated into the unit, ideal for a guest suite, home office, au pair, or extended family living. Delivered vacant, this property presents a compelling value-add opportunity for an owner-user or developer to renovate and reposition meaningful square footage in one of Noe Valley's most desirable pockets. Steps from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, top-rated schools, and neighborhood cafs and boutiques. This residence can be purchased individually or as part of a rare multi-unit offering. The three available condominiums, 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, are currently offered together at a combined price of $2,500,000, presenting a unique opportunity for investors, multi-generational living, or those seeking long-term value. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, allowing for expanded ownership and scale in a highly sought-after location.

17. 2026-05-03
    price $1,429,000 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! A rare large-footprint condominium with a detached cottage, thoughtfully incorporated into the unit, ideal for a guest suite, home office, au pair, or extended family living. Delivered vacant, this property presents a compelling value-add opportunity for an owner-user or developer to renovate and reposition meaningful square footage in one of Noe Valley's most desirable pockets. Steps from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, top-rated schools, and neighborhood cafs and boutiques. This residence can be purchased individually or as part of a rare multi-unit offering. The three available condominiums, 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, are currently offered together at a combined price of $2,500,000, presenting a unique opportunity for investors, multi-generational living, or those seeking long-term value. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, allowing for expanded ownership and scale in a highly sought-after location.

18. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,858,000 Active 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Huge Price Reduction! A rare large-footprint condominium with a detached cottage, thoughtfully incorporated into the unit, ideal for a guest suite, home office, au pair, or extended family living. Delivered vacant, this property presents a compelling value-add opportunity for an owner-user or developer to renovate and reposition meaningful square footage in one of Noe Valley's most desirable pockets. Steps from Whole Foods Market, the vibrant 24th Street corridor, top-rated schools, and neighborhood cafs and boutiques. This residence can be purchased individually or as part of a rare multi-unit offering. The three available condominiums, 1016 Noe St #B, 1018 Noe St, and 1020 Noe St, are currently offered together at a combined price of $2,500,000, presenting a unique opportunity for investors, multi-generational living, or those seeking long-term value. The property is part of a four-unit condominium building, with the fourth residence also available, allowing for expanded ownership and scale in a highly sought-after location.

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $1,925,000 Active
20. 2026-02-05
    historical
21. 2026-01-19
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,790 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,860 · $905/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,071/yr (+$506/mo · 126.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $125,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$80,046
• − Property taxes: −$4,790
• − Insurance: −$7,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,079
• − Management: −$10,079
• − Depreciation: −$41,571
• Taxable loss: −$27,720
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,653
• After-tax cash flow: $4,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,020
• Household income: $204,134
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.51%
• Current HPI: 223.6988
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.40%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $1,429,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $1,858,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $1,429,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $1,858,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $1,925,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-19 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,790 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.