Lily Plan · Argyle, TX 76226

$349,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,661 sqft · SingleFamily · 1003 Days on market

Excellent condition $214/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With a spacious covered outdoor living area, enjoying some fresh air and good company is effortless in the Lily. The 1st floor flows from the great room, kitchen and dining area making an open and connected home design.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1002 days

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $408,247.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Argyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#658 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1339 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1003 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,831 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1003 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $408,247
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -14.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 10th St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	1mo	$365,000	$194	73
716 Lamp Post Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-9%)	2mo	$347,900	$229	71
1529 Laurel Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+12%)	1mo	$394,215	$212	69
1501 Laurel Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,857 (+12%)	4mo	$399,876	$215	69
920 10th St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	6mo	$389,900	$207	69
824 8th St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+10%)	4mo	$424,999	$232	66
1000 Lamp Post Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-11%)	4mo	$365,000	$246	65
600 10th St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	4mo	$374,900	$199	63
1634 Mint	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,846 (+11%)	6mo	$398,583	$216	62
1618 Mint Rd	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,846 (+11%)	8mo	$399,856	$217	61
1712 Kaiser Cv	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+11%)	3mo	$400,000	$217	42
1813 Turnstone Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+13%)	1mo	$385,000	$205	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-118,446
• Equity at exit: $60,871

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-180,721
• Equity at exit: $35,298

Cash invested: $114,309 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $388,990 ($208/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1339
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$510 /mo · $6,124/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,842

Max offer price $298,066

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-479	-5% $-620	+0% $-761	+5% $-903	+10% $-1,044
Rent	-10% $-989	-5% $-875	+0% $-761	+5% $-648	+10% $-534
Rate	-1.0pp $-556	-0.5pp $-658	base $-761	+0.5pp $-867	+1.0pp $-975

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,062
• Closing costs: $12,247
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,800	$1.49	35d	1	0.06mi
721 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,550	$1.35	93d	1	0.11mi
701 10th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,649	$1.41	93d	1	0.13mi
816 Trailside Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$2,595	$1.57	93d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	31d	1	0.32mi
701 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,900	$1.55	38d	1	0.32mi
1704 Laurel Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0–2.5	1928	$2,823	$1.46	0d	8	0.33mi
1708 Laurel Ln Unit 2 Lantana, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$3,011	$1.63	17d	1	0.34mi
724 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2025	$2,575	$1.27	71d	1	0.40mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,500	$1.47	4d	1	0.43mi
537 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1702	$2,499	$1.47	73d	1	0.43mi
1933 Woodlawn Way Unit 99 Northlake, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$3,820	$1.75	17d	1	0.45mi
517 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1691	$2,500	$1.48	56d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,800	$1.40	9d	1	0.46mi
512 Parkside Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,750	$1.37	69d	1	0.46mi
528 4th St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.5	1509	$2,500	$1.66	10d	1	0.47mi
809 Blossom Ln Unit 35 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,610	$1.42	71d	1	0.47mi
909 Blossom Ln Unit 51 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$2,704	$1.47	71d	1	0.47mi
1044 3rd St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	38d	1	0.48mi
1044 3rd St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	48d	1	0.48mi
1044 3rd St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,500	$1.88	73d	1	0.48mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,540	$1.27	4d	1	0.49mi
441 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2003	$2,640	$1.32	30d	1	0.49mi
433 Matchbox St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	4d	1	0.50mi
1029 3rd St Argyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,450	$1.56	52d	1	0.50mi
420 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2035	$2,445	$1.20	60d	1	0.52mi
416 4th St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2044	$2,600	$1.27	10d	1	0.52mi
1056 Homestead Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2001	$2,700	$1.35	0d	1	0.54mi
200 Harvest Way Argyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1248	$2,983	$2.39	0d	226	0.64mi
936 Meadows Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,800	$1.38	7d	1	0.72mi
1309 Canary Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,695	$1.44	27d	1	0.73mi
1309 E Swan Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,695	$1.44	50d	1	0.78mi
1821 Waxwing Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2208	$2,975	$1.35	59d	1	0.80mi
1601 Bunting Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2210	$3,190	$1.44	34d	1	0.82mi
1601 Bunting Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2210	$2,995	$1.36	19d	1	0.82mi
1904 Cardinal Way Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2209	$3,000	$1.36	52d	1	0.84mi
1724 Henderson Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2044	$2,411	$1.18	48d	1	0.88mi
1316 Millerbird Way Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,900	$1.61	27d	1	0.92mi
2108 Blackrail Ct Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$2,850	$1.39	53d	1	1.06mi
616 Gannet Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2169	$2,800	$1.29	53d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 1003 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 1001 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 1000 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 999 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,990 Active 998 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 995 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 994 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 993 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $349,990 Active 992 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 990 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 988 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 987 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 986 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 985 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 984 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 982 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 981 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 980 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 979 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 978 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 977 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 976 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 975 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 974 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 973 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 971 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 970 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 969 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 968 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 967 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 966 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 965 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 964 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 963 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 962 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 961 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 960 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 958 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 956 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 955 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 952 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 951 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 950 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 949 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 947 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 946 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 943 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 942 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 941 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 938 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,868
• − Property taxes: −$6,124
• − Insurance: −$2,041
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$11,876
• Taxable loss: −$16,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This multi-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious covered outdoor living area and an open floor plan, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and tenants and improve the home's overall appeal. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Argyle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808670
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $108,516
• Composite: 64.16/100
• National rank: #568
• State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Argyle

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 43,587
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $366,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $365,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $364,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-01 Price Changed $362,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $361,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-10 Listed $360,990 Zillow