125 Hilltop St · Cadiz, KY 42211

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1979 0.70 ac lot $107/sqft · 28% below area Est $186k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS! This home would be a great rental of with some tlc could make a good starter home.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Lancaster Sa subdivision; Directions: From Lafayette Street in Cadiz take West End to Hilltop Street and turn left.

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trigg County Primary School (516 students, 66% FRL); Trigg County Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 440 students, 60% FRL); Trigg County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 617 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,402
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -27.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
292 First St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,175 (-7%)	13mo	$150,000	$128	56
65 Wharton Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+10%)	3mo	$205,000	$148	49
119 Noel Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+11%)	4mo	$169,000	$121	46
1334 Jefferson St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,196 (-5%)	22mo	$125,000	$105	45
342 2nd St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+8%)	14mo	$240,000	$176	44
143 Sunset Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+10%)	14mo	$215,000	$156	41
347 Lafayette St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+12%)	11mo	$220,000	$156	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $14,976
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $60,408
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $655	-5% $617	+0% $579	+5% $541	+10% $503
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $508	+0% $579	+5% $650	+10% $721
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $613	base $579	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
19. 2026-05-09
    listed $135,000 Active 94-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$260/yr (+$22/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,208
• After-tax cash flow: $5,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $135,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $901 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.