4215 Peppertown Rd · Mechanicsville, VA 23111

$259,950

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,401 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1971 0.25 ac lot $186/sqft · 26% below area Est $351k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with drywall and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built (actual year recorded)
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Front porch; Dead-end lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Partially carpeted floors; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $260k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,132 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,919
• List price: $259,950
• Delta: -25.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4152 Peppertown Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,422 (+2%)	19mo	$240,000	$169	69
8411 Beatties Mill Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-1%)	9mo	$380,000	$273	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-34,377
• Equity at exit: $38,759

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,078
• Equity at exit: $22,476

Cash invested: $72,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23111

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,407/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $259,950

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,988
• Closing costs: $7,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,950 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,950 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,950 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $259,950 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $267,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $267,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $267,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $267,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    listed $267,000 Active 486-char remark
11. 2005-05-26
    soldstatus $155,000
12. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $155,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

13. 2005-05-25
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

14. 2005-03-01
    listed $159,900 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

15. 2005-03-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

16. 2005-03-01
    listed $159,900

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

17. 2005-03-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Reduced Price!!! Motivated Seller. Adorable Rancher with a country setting but close to everything. Updated Kitchen with new appliances and ceramic tile flooring. Large laundry room with extra cabinet space. Screened porch and beautiful backyard. New C/A, furnace, vinyl siding, and paved driveway in 2001. Well maintained and manicured landscaping! Quick closing possible.

18. 2005-02-01
    listed $174,950
19. 2005-02-01
    listed $174,950
20. 2001-02-09
    soldstatus $96,000
21. 1996-07-29
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,561
• − Property taxes: −$2,407
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$7,562
• Taxable loss: −$2,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $2,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,070
• Household income: $98,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.34%
• Current HPI: 253.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+246.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $259,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-06-06 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $267,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-25 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-05-25 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CVRMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listed $159,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2005-03-01 Listed $159,900 CVRMLS
• 2005-02-01 Listed $174,950 CVRMLS
• 2005-02-01 Listed $174,950 CVRMLS
• 2001-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,407 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.