16079 Yarnell St Unit C15 · Los Angeles, CA 91342

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 876 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $180k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Rancho Hermoso, a premier community in Sylmar where this stunning manufactured home is ready for you. Expertly remodeled, this home boasts a range of impressive features. Begin your tour on the generous front porch that escorts you into a spacious living room. The bathrooms have been tastefully updated, and the home is meticulously maintained, ensuring you can enjoy the home right away. This all-ages community offers a wonderful array of amenities, including a sparkling pool and recreation center. Enjoy the comfort of an ample parking space for 3 cars. While the title lists the home as 672 sqft, an additional 204 sqft room offers a total of 876 sqft of comfortable living space. Although officially labeled as a two-bedroom home, there is an additional room currently used as a 3rd bedroom. Dont miss out!

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Spacious carport
• Recreation center

Tags

• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• BRIGHT LIVING AND DINING AREA
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• SPARKLING SWIMMING POOL
• RECREATION CENTER
• LARGE ADDITIONAL LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot characterized as 0-1 unit/acre; Elevation measured in feet; Pets allowed with size limit; Directions: Foothill and Yarnell
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Land lease of $920

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage spaces (3 total parking spaces); Located in Rancho Hermoso park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District / public water
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home (12 ft by 56 ft) remains on site; Living area per assessor's data
• Construction: Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Association-managed community pool; Street lighting

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Side door entry; Single-level home
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,580
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16079 Yarnell St Unit C15	0.00mi	2/2.0	876 (0%)	19mo	$180,000	$205	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-23,450
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,462
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91342

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,680 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16601 Foothill Blvd Rancho Cascades, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,358	$2.86	1d	10	0.64mi
13811 Glenoaks Blvd Rancho Cascades, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$2,395	$3.06	15d	1	0.71mi
16736 Nicklaus Dr #39 Rancho Cascades, CA	2.0	2.0	1061	$3,650	$3.44	43d	1	0.85mi
13035 San Fernando Rd Unit 1 Sylmar, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,445	$2.44	24d	1	1.02mi
15878 Larkspur St Sylmar, CA	1.0	1.0	755	$1,700	$2.25	20d	2	1.06mi
13637 Fellows Ave Unit 5 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,979	$2.98	43d	1	1.08mi
13615 Fellows Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1094	$2,979	$2.72	20d	2	1.09mi
13310 Glenoaks Blvd Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	800	$3,900	$4.88	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,573
• − Management: −$2,573
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$178
• After-tax cash flow: $4,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,301
• Household income: $98,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2559.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 23% White 12% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -921.77%
• Current HPI: 440.1462
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+681.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $250,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2017-05-02 Sold (MLS) $32,000 CRMLS
• 2017-04-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-03-31 Listed $32,000 CRMLS