1219 Filly Dr · Guthrie, OK 73044

$207,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot Est $195k · 7% over $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The COOPER floor plan is a single-story home that optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. An open-concept design includes the family room and a versatile kitchen/ dining area for everyday multitasking. An attached patio provides outdoor space. Nearby is the cozy owner’s suite with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet, while two bedrooms are located at the opposite end of the home. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Home is currently under construction with anticipated completion in April.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Private bathroom
• Attached patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Loan qualification: Yes; Not assumable
• HOA & community: Mandatory association dues; Association fee $330 (includes common area maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Homestead eligible
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction; Entry level: One
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Post-tension foundation; Built by Lennar
• Exterior features: No special exterior features listed; Located in Guthrie Farms addition

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level living; Greenbelt lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,456 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1112 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	0mo	$198,390	$159	89
1117 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$151	89
1201 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$192,150	$154	89
1215 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$199,717	$160	88
1211 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,259 (+1%)	1mo	$199,943	$159	87
1110 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+10%)	1mo	$217,910	$159	72
1113 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+10%)	1mo	$204,665	$149	72
1202 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+10%)	1mo	$204,960	$149	72
1118 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+10%)	1mo	$201,750	$147	72
1121 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+10%)	2mo	$207,650	$151	72
1124 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+12%)	1mo	$218,649	$156	68
1108 Colt Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+12%)	1mo	$235,005	$168	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-31,630
• Equity at exit: $31,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,808
• Equity at exit: $17,979

Cash invested: $58,223 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,090
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$260 /mo · $3,119/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $191,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-39	+0% $-111	+5% $-182	+10% $-254
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-178	+0% $-111	+5% $-43	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-58	base $-111	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,985
• Closing costs: $6,238
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1211 Clydesdale Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,625	$1.28	2d	1	0.13mi
1221 Colt Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,645	$1.57	3d	1	0.20mi
1201 Stallion Dr Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,000	$1.37	12d	1	0.25mi
406 S Pine St Guthrie, OK	4.0	1.0	1272	$1,400	$1.10	2d	1	0.68mi
520 E Springer Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,300	$1.19	24d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   price $207,940
3. 2026-04-24
   price $210,990
4. 2026-04-09
   price $207,939
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $223,590 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,648
• − Property taxes: −$3,119
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,049
• Taxable loss: −$4,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $-148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is currently under construction and will be completed in April. Minimal maintenance and cosmetic updates can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $207,940 MLSOK
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $210,990 MLSOK
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $207,939 MLSOK
• 2026-04-02 Listed $223,590 MLSOK