22 Van Doren Mews · Towamensing Trails, PA 18210

$236,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2008 0.38 ac lot $243/sqft · 12% below area Est $268k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 972 sq ft in Towamensing Trails. Features a bright, functional layout and a 14x14 enclosed porch for extra living or relaxing space. Set in a quiet wooded setting, it offers privacy while still near recreation and amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence or getaway. Property sold AS-IS

Key facts

• Enclosed porch
• Quiet wooded setting
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• QUIET WOODED SETTING
• NEAR RECREATION
• NEAR AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($300/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Towamensing Trails — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,361 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $236k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $204,421 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,429
• List price: $236,000
• Delta: -12.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Van Doren Mews	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+9%)	1mo	$280,000	$265	82
102 Whitman Ln	0.14mi	3/1.0	960 (-1%)	7mo	$195,000	$203	82
223 Towamensing Trl	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,044 (+7%)	6mo	$256,000	$245	65
222 Keats Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+9%)	7mo	$267,000	$253	56
46 Thomas Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+9%)	4mo	$255,000	$241	54
381 Towamensing Trl	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+11%)	6mo	$310,000	$288	50
85 Dryden Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	984 (+1%)	18mo	$227,000	$231	49
191 Keats Ln	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	885 (-9%)	7mo	$251,000	$284	46
139 Towamensing Trail Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	864 (-11%)	1mo	$220,000	$255	46
92 Frost Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,086 (+12%)	22mo	$220,000	$203	36
11 Spencer Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	12mo	$255,000	$232	34
16 Spencer Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+11%)	24mo	$342,900	$318	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,524
• Equity at exit: $36,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,906
• Equity at exit: $22,454

Cash invested: $66,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18210

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,047/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $236,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,000
• Closing costs: $7,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 972 sq ft in Towamensing Trails. Features a bright, functional layout and a 14x14 enclosed porch for extra living or relaxing space. Set in a quiet wooded setting, it offers privacy while still near recreation and amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence or getaway. Property sold AS-IS

2. 2026-04-29
   price $236,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 972 sq ft in Towamensing Trails. Features a bright, functional layout and a 14x14 enclosed porch for extra living or relaxing space. Set in a quiet wooded setting, it offers privacy while still near recreation and amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence or getaway. Property sold AS-IS

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $239,000 Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with 972 sq ft in Towamensing Trails. Features a bright, functional layout and a 14x14 enclosed porch for extra living or relaxing space. Set in a quiet wooded setting, it offers privacy while still near recreation and amenities. Ideal for a full-time residence or getaway. Property sold AS-IS

4. 2008-04-21
   soldstatus $134,896

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,047 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,388 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,220
• − Property taxes: −$3,047
• − Insurance: −$1,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$6,865
• Taxable loss: −$3,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Thorpe Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212540
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,476
• Composite: 31.42/100
• National rank: #5988
• State rank: #394 of 539 in PA

Livability — Towamensing Trails

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1361
• US rank: #16977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Towamensing Trails, PA
• City population: 7,879
• Population (ZIP): 7,879

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,643 people
• By 2030: 59,840 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 50,843 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 43,326 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 37,126 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Current HPI: 203.8099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+74.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $236,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $239,000 PMAR
• 2008-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $134,896 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,047 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.