8229 Coed Ln · Florin, CA 95828

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 2001 $845/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained home has been lovingly cared for by the owner and treated like a true family home. Every detail reflects pride of ownership and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Step inside to an inviting layout featuring a remodeled kitchen, updated bathrooms, and a cozy fireplace perfect for relaxing evenings. The home offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra space. Outside, the property features a beautiful green garden, a good-sized backyard, and a three-car carport. The community is gated and offers great amenities including a pool, community events and basketball court, making it an amazing place to live. A home li

Key facts

• Gated community
• Three-car carport
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GOOD-SIZED BACKYARD
• THREE-CAR CARPORT
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 8229 Coed Ln, Sacramento, CA 95828
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly association fee of $845; Association includes exterior and grounds maintenance, trash, and water; Community amenities: activities, pool, clubhouse, guest parking, picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Gas plumbed; Public sewer; Water from public/water district; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Double wide; Built in 2001
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl skirting; Built by Champion Home Builder Company; Model/Make: Infinite
• Exterior features: Backyard; Front yard; Regular-shaped lot; Covered parking; Guest parking available

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone and wood counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Jetted tub; Tile finishes; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Fireplace heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One wood-burning fireplace located in the dining room; Great room living area; Skylight in the dining area; Dining and living room combined (open plan)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with 220V electric

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,520
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8230 Tiki Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	13mo	$105,000	$75	82
8221 Tiki Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-6%)	2mo	$140,000	$103	80
7547 Debutante Ln #81	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (+7%)	10mo	$105,000	$68	71
8250 Destiny Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	17mo	$85,000	$55	61
7539 Debutante	0.14mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,485 (+3%)	23mo	$160,000	$108	61
134 Gardenia	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$83	60
8229 Covina Ln #28	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,350 (-6%)	22mo	$185,000	$137	60
103 Dahlia Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	1mo	$89,000	$64	59
8593 Calais Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	20mo	$325,000	$260	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,967
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,154
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$845
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7733 Robinette Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	43d	1	0.88mi
7421 Conrad Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1442	$2,595	$1.80	7d	1	1.07mi
8159 Laurel Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1214	$2,396	$1.97	4d	1	1.13mi
8184 Creeping Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,695	$1.49	4d	1	1.15mi
8620 Tiogawoods Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1137	$2,750	$2.42	7d	1	1.18mi
7416 Mimosa Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	1582	$2,475	$1.56	43d	1	1.18mi
8112 Creeping Willow Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1214	$2,495	$2.06	11d	1	1.19mi
8148 Lenhart Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,395	$2.12	14d	1	1.30mi
7756 Southbreeze Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,395	$1.84	1d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $845 · $10,140/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $195,000 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,021/yr (+$85/mo · 221.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,710
• − Management: −$2,710
• − HOA: −$10,140
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $2,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.