1315 Barnard Rd · Brownsville, TX 78520

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1975 9,450 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $188k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location for this property, it is a 3 bedroom 2 bath home with large lot. This home needs some love and would make a great home for anyone. . Please schedule your showing as soon as you can might not last long.

Key facts

• 9,450 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.36%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,912
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -10.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1723 Stanford Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-8%)	15mo	$197,000	$149	40
344 Fairfax St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-8%)	21mo	$189,000	$142	40
314 Lewis St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+13%)	13mo	$223,900	$138	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,615
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $55,685
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,636/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $259	+0% $211	+5% $163	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $142	+0% $211	+5% $281	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $254	base $211	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
164 Robins Ln Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,200	$1.36	44d	1	0.34mi
1405 Harvard Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	44d	1	0.38mi
1904 Central Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$1,035	$0.99	44d	9	0.44mi
801 Tropical Dr Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	44d	1	0.45mi
35 Cenizo Brownsville, TX	2.0	3.5	1404	$2,500	$1.78	44d	1	0.49mi
1604 Yale Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1316	$1,800	$1.37	21d	1	0.51mi
1618 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,700	$1.58	44d	1	0.58mi
1617 E Los Ebanos Blvd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,900	$1.61	21d	1	0.60mi
404 Boca Chica Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	21d	1	0.61mi
401 Boca Chica Blvd Unit 505 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.63mi
600 Lakeside Blvd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$950	$1.25	14d	2	0.67mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	14d	1	0.78mi
234 Emerald Ln Lot 4 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	21d	1	0.78mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit ujnit 1-A Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.79mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit A-13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,250	$1.10	44d	1	0.79mi
2425 Barnard Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,165	$1.31	14d	12	0.79mi
34 W Hawthorne Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	940	$1,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.90mi
1234 W Levee St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1281	$1,500	$1.17	21d	1	0.93mi
605 Paredes Line Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	900	$875	$0.97	44d	1	1.01mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1130	$2,500	$2.21	44d	2	1.03mi
95 Poinciana Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1218	$2,600	$2.13	14d	2	1.03mi
15 Sunnyside Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1436	$2,000	$1.39	14d	1	1.09mi
2901 Central Blvd Unit 202 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	21d	1	1.16mi
2573 Rockwell Dr Unit 1C Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,100	$1.13	44d	1	1.32mi
2573 Rockwell Dr Unit 2E Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.32mi
835 E Taylor St Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,550	$1.35	44d	1	1.32mi
375 Media Luna Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,404	$1.49	14d	2	1.39mi
219 E 3rd St Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	44d	1	1.41mi
11 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	1.46mi
10 Country Club Rd Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	1.46mi
715 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	14d	1	1.48mi
714 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,400	$1.62	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   Great location for this property, it is a 3 bedroom 2 bath home with large lot. This home needs some love and would make a great home for anyone. . Please schedule your showing as soon as you can might not last long.

2. 2026-03-23
   listed $169,000 Active 216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (216 chars)

   Great location for this property, it is a 3 bedroom 2 bath home with large lot. This home needs some love and would make a great home for anyone. . Please schedule your showing as soon as you can might not last long.

3. 2004-01-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,636 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,636
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $169,000 RGVMLS
• 2004-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,636 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.