14404 Wahlbergs Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$252,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 4,599 sqft lot $235/sqft · 13% below area Est $291k · 13% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Acorn plan is the perfect fit for modern living. This three-bedroom layout includes a private primary suite and versatile secondary bedrooms ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. The spacious living area flows effortlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating an inviting setting for game nights, entertaining, or everyday relaxation. Smartly designed and easy to live in, everything you need is right at your fingertips in the Acorn.

Key facts

• 4,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $420 covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include barbecue areas, common grounds, community mailbox, dog park, playground, park, street lights, sidewalks, trails/paths, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces; Driveway parking (total 4 parking spaces); Concrete driveway; Garage faces front with garage door opener; Lighted parking area
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water and public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; Phone service available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by LGI Homes - Texas, LLC; Faces southeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding with masonry and glass accents; Blown-in insulation and radiant barrier; Composition/shingle roof; Concrete elements
• Exterior features: Private, landscaped yard with small trees; Covered front porch; Back and front yard with wood fencing and gate; Automatic in-ground sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing electric range/oven; Self-cleaning oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Plumbed for ice maker; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (includes a main-level primary)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump) and central air; Electric heating and cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan with high ceilings; Entrance foyer; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); High speed internet; Smart thermostat; Pantry; Granite countertops; Walk-in closet(s); Low flow plumbing fixtures; Blinds; Double pane insulated windows with low-emissivity glass and screens; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($427/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $210,244 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,661
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -12.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $140,213
• Equity at exit: $227,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $411,553
• Equity at exit: $491,329

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $252,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.03mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.08mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.17mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.48mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.83mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.95mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $252,900 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $252,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 452-char remark
4. 2026-05-07
   price $255,900 452-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   price $252,900 452-char remark
6. 2026-04-23
   price $258,900 452-char remark
7. 2026-04-07
   listed $262,900 Active 452-char remark
8. 2026-03-20
   price
9. 2026-03-12
   price
10. 2026-03-06
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,905 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,628 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,723/yr (+$227/mo · 142.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable loss: −$3,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$941
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12029.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $252,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,085 ACTRIS
• 2026-06-11 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,905 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.