17750 Dean Ct · Grangerland, TX 77302

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1995 $128/sqft · at area comps Est $166k · at est. $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice size mobil home that is being remodeled and still incomplete, allowing you to add the finishing touches to your liking. It sits on a large , fully fenced lot and is located near the newly completed 242 highway with easy access to the city.

Key facts

• Easy access to city
• Remodeled
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• REMODELED
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO CITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.52%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,304
• List price: $172,000
• Delta: 3.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-510
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $36,108
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $346/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $471	+0% $422	+5% $177	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $279	-5% $351	+0% $422	+5% $494	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $466	base $422	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	44d	1	0.18mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	0.87mi
17892 Brown Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	20d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $172,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-01-24
    listed $172,000 Active 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Nice size mobil home that is being remodeled and still incomplete, allowing you to add the finishing touches to your liking. It sits on a large , fully fenced lot and is located near the newly completed 242 highway with easy access to the city.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,148 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,802/yr (+$233/mo · 810.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$346
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable income: $2,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$561
• After-tax cash flow: $4,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $172,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $346 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.