1095 Scenic Dr · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 702 Days on market

Built 1992 6,621 sqft lot $104/sqft · 25% below area Est $146k · 25% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great corner lot with mature trees, This 2 bedroom 2 bath has an open floor plan new flooring and new kitchen counter tops. Beautiful trees with a small fenced back yard with Peach tree. Carport, Both front and back porch. A must see home with exterior features.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New flooring
• Carport

Tags

• CORNER LOT WITH MATURE TREES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTER TOPS
• SMALL FENCED BACK YARD
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 702 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 702 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,804
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,250
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $18,112
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
535 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 4 Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	24d	1	0.18mi
551 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 2 Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.19mi
149 Vint Bonner Dr Unit 149V Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,150	$0.92	24d	1	0.38mi
241 Brushy Creek Trl Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	7d	1	0.76mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.20mi
161 Water St Unit A Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	43d	1	1.33mi
161 Water St Unit B Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 702 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 701 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 700 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 699 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 697 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 693 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 691 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 688 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 687 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 686 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 685 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 684 DOM
13. 2025-10-30
    status Back on Market 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Great corner lot with mature trees, This 2 bedroom 2 bath has an open floor plan new flooring and new kitchen counter tops. Beautiful trees with a small fenced back yard with Peach tree. Carport, Both front and back porch. A must see home with exterior features.

14. 2025-10-27
    historical 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Great corner lot with mature trees, This 2 bedroom 2 bath has an open floor plan new flooring and new kitchen counter tops. Beautiful trees with a small fenced back yard with Peach tree. Carport, Both front and back porch. A must see home with exterior features.

15. 2025-09-19
    price $110,000 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Great corner lot with mature trees, This 2 bedroom 2 bath has an open floor plan new flooring and new kitchen counter tops. Beautiful trees with a small fenced back yard with Peach tree. Carport, Both front and back porch. A must see home with exterior features.

16. 2024-07-13
    listed $125,000 New 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Great corner lot with mature trees, This 2 bedroom 2 bath has an open floor plan new flooring and new kitchen counter tops. Beautiful trees with a small fenced back yard with Peach tree. Carport, Both front and back porch. A must see home with exterior features.

17. 2023-04-02
    historical
18. 2023-01-29
    price $117,500
19. 2022-08-24
    listed $122,475 New
20. 2022-06-17
    soldstatus
21. 2022-06-16
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-05-26
    status Pending
23. 2022-05-21
    listed $75,000 New
24. 2007-03-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $2,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+46.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $110,000 LERA
• 2024-07-13 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2023-04-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-01-29 Price Changed $117,500 LERA
• 2022-08-24 Listed $122,475 LERA
• 2022-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-16 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-05-26 Pending — LERA
• 2022-05-21 Listed $75,000 LERA
• 2007-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.