333 Tamarack · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · Manufactured public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1977 0.75 ac lot $107/sqft · 32% below area Est $288k · 32% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Mature oak trees
• Nearly an acre
• Carport

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• MATURE OAK TREES
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• LOW HOA
• LIGHT RESTRICTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.70%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,356
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -32.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,767
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,496
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,983 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,916/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1285 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	43d	1	0.03mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,820	$1.34	4d	1	0.19mi
1200 Willow Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,875	$1.38	43d	1	0.21mi
691 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,495	$0.90	24d	1	0.33mi
2471 George Pass Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.5	2511	$3,800	$1.51	44d	1	0.84mi
1660 McIver Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1378	$3,450	$2.50	43d	1	0.89mi
578 Misty Glen Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	1.21mi
1616 Lonesome Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	1d	1	1.21mi
1123 Hedgestone Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $195,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Back on Market 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   status $195,000 Back on Market 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active Option 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $195,000 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

17. 2026-05-15
    price $195,000 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

18. 2026-03-19
    price $218,000 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

19. 2026-03-19
    price $218,000 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

20. 2026-02-15
    listed $223,000 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

21. 2026-01-24
    listed $223,000 New 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (947 chars)

    Nestled on nearly an acre shaded by lovely mature oak trees, this Canyon Lake home offers privacy, versatility and classic Hill Country charm. Relax under the trees, enjoy morning coffee on the porch or imagine the updates that could make this home truly your own. A carport and storage shed add convenience while the low HOA and light restrictions allowing both short-term and long-term rentals make this property ideal for homeowners and investors alike. Offered below appraisal, this home is full of potential, perfect for creating your Hill Country retreat or securing a rental investment in a high-demand area. Centrally located just minutes from Canyon Lake and within easy reach of New Braunfels, San Marcos, Blanco, Wimberley, Fredericksburg, Marble Falls, Johnson City and more, you'll have the best of the Hill Country at your fingertips. Don't wait, schedule your showing today and see all the possibilities this property has to offer!

22. 2026-01-19
    historical
23. 2025-11-22
    listed $224,400 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,916 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,916
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,904
• − Management: −$1,904
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $195,000 LERA
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $195,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $218,000 LERA
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $218,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $223,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $223,000 LERA
• 2026-01-19 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-11-22 Listed $224,400 LERA

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,916 · +39.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.