301 Rosewood Dr · Victoria, TX 77901

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1973 0.30 ac lot $96/sqft · 23% below area Est $226k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for an investor or a group of investors, first-time home buyer with skills. This brick home has a wood-burning fireplace, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms, and 2 baths. Located near schools, shopping, and a medical center, as well as the University and Victoria College. This is the blank slate you are looking for to make it your own. This home is near the Fine Arts Center and the Tanglewood pool and clubhouse.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• VAULTED CEILING
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR MEDICAL CENTER
• NEAR UNIVERSITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,555 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,500
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -22.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 Teakwood	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,844 (+1%)	4mo	$295,000	$160	81
503 Sherwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-4%)	3mo	$230,000	$131	79
304 Sherwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-4%)	1mo	$233,000	$133	75
517 Maplewood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-10%)	3mo	$220,000	$134	70
2407 E Airline Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,796 (-1%)	3mo	$223,000	$124	70
3301 Cypress St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-9%)	2mo	$185,000	$112	69
603 Maplewood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,644 (-10%)	2mo	$179,990	$109	67
106 Fieldstone	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,819 (-0%)	8mo	$273,000	$150	59
2708 E Poplar Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-13%)	1mo	$239,900	$152	58
2602 College Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,022 (+11%)	3mo	$187,500	$93	50
2303 Bon Aire Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-9%)	7mo	$230,000	$139	49
3402 Erwin Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (+12%)	8mo	$225,000	$110	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-40,162
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,002
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,342/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,607

Max offer price $153,927

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
602 Sherwood Dr Unit C Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,250	$1.02	43d	1	0.34mi
2402 N Ben Wilson St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,580	$1.60	43d	20	0.79mi
1601 John Stockbauer Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,805	$1.81	43d	8	1.04mi
1709 Navidad St Victoria, TX	4.0	1.0	1457	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	1.26mi
114 Avant Garde Dr Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,595	$1.15	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    listed $175,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great opportunity for an investor or a group of investors, first-time home buyer with skills. This brick home has a wood-burning fireplace, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms, and 2 baths. Located near schools, shopping, and a medical center, as well as the University and Victoria College. This is the blank slate you are looking for to make it your own. This home is near the Fine Arts Center and the Tanglewood pool and clubhouse.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,342 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,342 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,342
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,065
• After-tax cash flow: $-366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $175,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,342 · -22.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.