156 Blake Ln · Stonecrest, GA 30294

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1979 0.25 ac lot $132/sqft · 21% below area Est $286k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in the serene community of Ellenwood, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch house boasts a perfect blend of comfort and potential with 1706 sq ft. From the moment you step inside, the inviting open floor plan greets you with warm, natural light pouring through every window. The spacious living area is perfect for both entertaining guests and cozy family nights. The heart of this home is its well-appointed kitchen, ideal for culinary adventures or quick family breakfasts. The master suite provides a tranquil retreat with an ensuite bath offering relaxation at day's end. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family members or can be transformed into home offices or hobby rooms. An unfinished basement presents unlimited potential-envision a game room, gym, or extra storage space that meets your needs. Step outside onto the expansive deck overlooking a large backyard-a lush canvas ready for gardening dreams or lively summer barbecues under Georgia's sunny skies.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Open floor plan
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• MASTER SUITE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 566 students, 69% FRL); Austin Road Middle School (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Stockbridge High School (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #284 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,543 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 43% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,130/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($80k/yr) (locally 864% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.28%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,387
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -21.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1028 Strawberry Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-7%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	77
1015 Strawberry Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,827 (+7%)	18mo	$256,000	$140	62
907 Strawberry Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,937 (+14%)	5mo	$272,000	$140	59
35 Fairfield Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-13%)	12mo	$249,000	$167	55
6 Fairfield Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+12%)	10mo	$265,000	$138	54
326 Acaro Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-8%)	11mo	$255,000	$163	52
322 Acaro Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-12%)	7mo	$218,600	$146	48
116 Black Oak Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,628 (-5%)	13mo	$280,000	$172	47
199 Holly Springs Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+8%)	15mo	$225,000	$122	44
1101 Strawberry Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,924 (+13%)	20mo	$257,500	$134	43
455 Fairview Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-5%)	20mo	$195,000	$120	43
361 Chateauguay Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-12%)	20mo	$245,000	$164	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $19,728
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $104,547
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,771/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $929	-5% $865	+0% $802	+5% $738	+10% $674
Rent	-10% $555	-5% $678	+0% $802	+5% $925	+10% $1,049
Rate	-1.0pp $915	-0.5pp $859	base $802	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Wilhelmina Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,900	$3.06	45d	1	0.45mi
65 Juliana Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2000	$5,200	$2.60	45d	1	0.49mi
4910 Brookstone Pkwy Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1728	$1,995	$1.15	3d	1	0.93mi
3971 Brookstone Ct Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1891	$2,256	$1.19	6d	1	0.98mi
3637 Windmill Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	26d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $224,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $224,900 Back On Market 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $224,900 Under Contract 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $224,900 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the serene community of Ellenwood, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch house boasts a perfect blend of comfort and potential with 1706 sq ft. From the moment you step inside, the inviting open floor plan greets you with warm, natural light pouring through every window. The spacious living area is perfect for both entertaining guests and cozy family nights. The heart of this home is its well-appointed kitchen, ideal for culinary adventures or quick family breakfasts. The master suite provides a tranquil retreat with an ensuite bath offering relaxation at day's end. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family members or can be transformed into home offices or hobby rooms. An unfinished basement presents unlimited potential-envision a game room, gym, or extra storage space that meets your needs. Step outside onto the expansive deck overlooking a large backyard-a lush canvas ready for gardening dreams or lively summer barbecues under Georgia's sunny skies.

11. 2026-04-24
    price $234,900 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the serene community of Ellenwood, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch house boasts a perfect blend of comfort and potential with 1706 sq ft. From the moment you step inside, the inviting open floor plan greets you with warm, natural light pouring through every window. The spacious living area is perfect for both entertaining guests and cozy family nights. The heart of this home is its well-appointed kitchen, ideal for culinary adventures or quick family breakfasts. The master suite provides a tranquil retreat with an ensuite bath offering relaxation at day's end. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family members or can be transformed into home offices or hobby rooms. An unfinished basement presents unlimited potential-envision a game room, gym, or extra storage space that meets your needs. Step outside onto the expansive deck overlooking a large backyard-a lush canvas ready for gardening dreams or lively summer barbecues under Georgia's sunny skies.

12. 2026-03-27
    listed $239,900 New 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in the serene community of Ellenwood, GA! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch house boasts a perfect blend of comfort and potential with 1706 sq ft. From the moment you step inside, the inviting open floor plan greets you with warm, natural light pouring through every window. The spacious living area is perfect for both entertaining guests and cozy family nights. The heart of this home is its well-appointed kitchen, ideal for culinary adventures or quick family breakfasts. The master suite provides a tranquil retreat with an ensuite bath offering relaxation at day's end. Two additional bedrooms provide ample space for family members or can be transformed into home offices or hobby rooms. An unfinished basement presents unlimited potential-envision a game room, gym, or extra storage space that meets your needs. Step outside onto the expansive deck overlooking a large backyard-a lush canvas ready for gardening dreams or lively summer barbecues under Georgia's sunny skies.

13. 2014-04-30
    historical
14. 2013-12-11
    listed $70,000 Active
15. 2001-10-24
    soldstatus $152,500
16. 1983-12-01
    soldstatus $70,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,771 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,771 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,771
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,004
• − Management: −$3,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable income: $6,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,563
• After-tax cash flow: $8,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+217.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $224,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $234,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2014-04-30 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2013-12-11 Listed $70,000 FMLS
• 2001-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 1983-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,771 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.