22820 American Kestrel Ct · Splendora, TX 77372

$193,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · Land · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 4,800 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Townsend Reserve in Splendora, TX.  The Nantucket floorplan is a charming 2-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car garage! You'll love the open concept first floor and vinyl plank flooring throughout the common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with white cabinets and laminate countertops! Upstairs offers private retreat for all bedrooms! Enjoy the great outdoors with a sprinkler system and a patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Townsend Reserve home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Laminate countertop
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• NANTUCKET FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WHITE CABINETS
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Principal Management Group; Annual association fee of $605

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces west
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level, ~12'x11'); Bedroom (Second level, ~11'x10'); Bedroom (Second level, ~10'x10')
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate countertops; Bath in primary bedroom; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors; Tub/shower; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 548 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $182,350 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,535
• Equity at exit: $28,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,520
• Equity at exit: $16,773

Cash invested: $54,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $193,990

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $274	+0% $219	+5% $164	+10% $109
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $146	+0% $219	+5% $291	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $317	-0.5pp $268	base $219	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,498
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Active
3. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-09
   listed $193,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,550 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,543/yr (+$212/mo · 252.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,866
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,643
• Taxable loss: −$574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $193,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+39.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.