2784 Tolman Ave SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$349,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Alexander, a floorplan from our Value collection. As you enter through the covered entryway, you'll step into a spacious foyer that seamlessly leads into the Great Room, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. This thoughtfully designed home features two bedrooms situated on one side, while the Owners' Suite is nestled in the back corner, offering optimal privacy and tranquility. The kitchen is a true highlight of the Alexander, boasting ample space and a layout that provides a full view into the Great Room, perfect for entertaining and staying connected with loved ones. Additionally, a separate dining room and living room flank the front of the home, adding an extra touch o

Key facts

• Covered entryway
• Three-car garage
• Owners' suite

Tags

• COVERED ENTRYWAY
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• OWNERS' SUITE
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• THREE-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Home design: Spec-built plan named Alexander
• Exterior features: Address: 2784 Tolman Ave SE, Palm Bay FL 32909

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1552

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,969 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.63%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $147,240
• Equity at exit: $315,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $472,026
• Equity at exit: $679,954

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $248,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-463	-5% $-584	+0% $-705	+5% $-826	+10% $-947
Rent	-10% $-876	-5% $-790	+0% $-705	+5% $-619	+10% $-533
Rate	-1.0pp $-528	-0.5pp $-616	base $-705	+0.5pp $-795	+1.0pp $-888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2691 Tepee Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,040	$1.11	21d	1	0.42mi
543 Reading St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,010	$1.10	21d	1	0.46mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.59mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	14d	1	0.61mi
486 Dadeville St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,995	$1.09	14d	1	0.62mi
1224 Dillard Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,336	$1.32	14d	1	0.67mi
590 Trymore Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,250	$1.20	14d	1	0.71mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	21d	1	0.73mi
3219 Hainsworth Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1219	$2,100	$1.72	14d	1	0.79mi
2749 Freehold Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	0.80mi
496 Vanguard St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1666	$2,150	$1.29	24d	1	0.81mi
2785 Gabboys Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	24d	1	0.83mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.93mi
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	19d	1	0.97mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	19d	1	1.05mi
3247 Halblum Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,516	$1.38	14d	1	1.07mi
291 Foley St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,025	$1.10	14d	1	1.13mi
286 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,925	$1.05	14d	1	1.21mi
978 Remington Green Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	24d	1	1.23mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	24d	1	1.25mi
238 Silver Frost St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,849	$1.25	24d	1	1.26mi
160 Dailey St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1795	$2,275	$1.27	24d	1	1.28mi
2250 Chinaberry Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,995	$1.20	24d	1	1.31mi
1406 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	1.41mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	1.42mi
402 Breckenridge Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	24d	1	1.45mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	14d	1	1.45mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	14d	1	1.46mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,990 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,990 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$14,916
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B