228 Holly St · San Antonio, TX 78207

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $164k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Duplex 1 bed 1 bath each side Market rents $900 each side

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1982
• Construction: 1982 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Inner West Side subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($739/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,478/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 2789% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $150k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,833 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,850
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3022 EL Paso	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-3%)	2mo	$99,000	$90	71
2014 Montezuma	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,198 (+6%)	4mo	$179,900	$150	68
3018 Chihuahua	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (+3%)	12mo	$180,000	$155	60
2920 Tampico	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+6%)	8mo	$120,000	$100	54
2917 Chihuahua St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-8%)	17mo	$64,900	$62	46
3011 W Cesar E Chavez	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,262 (+12%)	6mo	$149,900	$119	44
3927 W Houston	0.57mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-11%)	4mo	$146,000	$145	43
3537 S Laredo St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	987 (-13%)	4mo	$104,999	$106	41
3225 Buena Vis	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+12%)	13mo	$220,000	$175	40
1619 Montezuma St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,062 (-6%)	22mo	$189,000	$178	40
3326 W Travis	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (+10%)	15mo	$135,000	$109	31
1714 San Patricio	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (+14%)	22mo	$189,000	$147	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $93,051
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $289,136
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78207

• Home prices YoY: 15.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,086/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $104	+0% $62	+5% $19	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $3	+0% $62	+5% $120	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $100	base $62	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1823 San Carlos St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,099	$1.01	3d	1	0.46mi
2311 Potosi St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	44d	1	0.52mi
214 Aztec St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	973	$1,275	$1.31	15d	1	0.72mi
3918 W Martin St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	0.77mi
1135 Ceralvo St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,450	$1.25	22d	1	0.96mi
1135 Ceralvo St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,450	$1.25	5d	1	0.96mi
2425 Monterey St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,000	$1.41	44d	1	0.96mi
3038 W Salinas Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1149	$1,550	$1.35	5d	1	0.99mi
2619 W Houston St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	776	$1,800	$2.32	44d	1	1.12mi
843 Brady Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	864	$1,650	$1.91	24d	1	1.29mi
2003 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,395	$1.36	24d	1	1.31mi
509 S Trinity St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	921	$1,300	$1.41	5d	1	1.34mi
1230 Rivas St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1287	$1,999	$1.55	24d	1	1.41mi
2406 S Laredo St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	944	$1,200	$1.27	15d	1	1.42mi
319 Noria St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	1.43mi
1231 Rivas St Unit 102 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,299	$1.16	44d	1	1.43mi
1711 W Cesar E Chavez Blvd Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,275	$1.59	44d	1	1.47mi
206 Roberts St Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 57-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,086
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,474
• Household income: $32,472
• Rent vs Own: 59.7% rent · 40.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2789.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 41% White 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.92%
• Current HPI: 264.7559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+294.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $150,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,086 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.