4353 Butterscotch Cir · Lakeland, FL 33811

$262,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Townhouse · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,178 sqft lot $130/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Introducing the Pearson – where modern elegance meets everyday functionality in this stylish townhome. Located in Hawthorne Ranch in Lakeland, Florida. Step into sophistication as you enter through the one-car garage into a spacious and welcoming abode with 1,463 square feet. The heart of the home, a sprawling living space, beckons with its ample room and abundant natural light. Whether entertaining guests or enjoying a quiet night in, this versatile area adapts effortlessly to your lifestyle needs. Adjacent to the living space lies the dining nook and gourmet kitchen, a chef's delight adorned with sleek cabinetry, premium stainless-steel appliances, and a stunning

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• One car garage
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK IN CLOSET
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE BATH
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family home, Pearson plan
• Exterior features: Address: 4353 Butterscotch Cir, Lakeland, FL 33811

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Pearson plan); Living area approximately 1464

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $233,542 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-55,818
• Equity at exit: $39,199

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-82,941
• Equity at exit: $22,731

Cash invested: $73,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $248,161

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,725
• Closing costs: $7,887
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3978 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	14d	1	0.67mi
5765 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,199	$1.32	3d	1	0.67mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1628	$1,998	$1.23	2d	1	0.89mi
3798 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	19d	1	0.95mi
4505 Breccia Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,029	$1.32	14d	1	1.19mi
5340 Song Sparrow Ct Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,076	$1.22	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $262,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $262,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$1,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$7,648
• Taxable loss: −$5,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior, making it a good candidate for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B