1020 Ervin Ter · Dayton, KY 41074

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1890 7,187 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome 1020 Ervin Terrace in Home Sweet Dayton. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines old world charm with updated design including arched doorways, new hardwood floors, and high ceilings. A first floor primary suite, charming front porch, and light filled rooms. BACK ON MARKET after Buyer Changed Mind.

Key facts

• Arched doorways
• High ceilings
• 7,187 sq ft lot

Tags

• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $69k).
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 6.9% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#67 in KY, #1,485 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Dayton Independent (suburban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #129 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 487 students, 82% FRL); Dayton High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 372 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 15% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $69,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.40%
• DSCR: 4.67
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,550
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 5th Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,785 (-2%)	4mo	$348,000	$195	72
520 4th Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,771 (-2%)	3mo	$285,000	$161	71
17 Harrison Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,862 (+3%)	3mo	$410,000	$220	69
228 Center St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-2%)	1mo	$325,000	$183	64
23 Beechwood Pl	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,638 (-10%)	3mo	$299,000	$183	62
522 7th Ave	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,568 (-14%)	3mo	$248,000	$158	61
1008 3rd Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (-4%)	0mo	$160,000	$92	61
443 Washington Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+9%)	2mo	$185,000	$94	59
159 Ward Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-7%)	5mo	$340,000	$202	59
309 Center St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+5%)	6mo	$280,000	$147	54
341 Eden Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,990 (+10%)	2mo	$320,000	$161	49
314 Dayton Ave	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,081 (+15%)	5mo	$354,500	$170	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.35×
• Total profit: $84,034
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.8%
• Equity multiple: 12.90×
• Total profit: $229,866
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41074

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,519/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $1,327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,366	-5% $1,346	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,307	+10% $1,288
Rent	-10% $1,134	-5% $1,230	+0% $1,327	+5% $1,423	+10% $1,519
Rate	-1.0pp $1,361	-0.5pp $1,344	base $1,327	+0.5pp $1,309	+1.0pp $1,291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
236 Ward Ave Bellevue, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,585	$1.72	13d	1	0.49mi
327 Covert Run Pike Unit 1 Bellevue, KY	2.0	2.0	1580	$1,850	$1.17	24d	1	0.65mi
1065 Manhattan Blvd Dayton, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,749	$2.65	2d	19	0.73mi
118 Beech St Newport, KY	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,400	$1.49	2d	1	1.18mi
1404-1406 E McMillan St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	1.20mi
2331 Park Ave Unit 1 Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	2d	1	1.27mi
2533 Woodburn Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.0	912	$3,320	$3.64	2d	39	1.27mi
1228 E McMillan St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1340	$2,327	$1.74	2d	14	1.31mi
143 Capri Dr Fort Thomas, KY	4.0	2.0	2200	$3,400	$1.55	2d	1	1.36mi
923 Rogers Pl Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0	2061	$1,600	$0.78	24d	1	1.39mi
918 Windsor St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0	2583	$1,675	$0.65	24d	1	1.40mi
923 Paradrome St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.5	2098	$3,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.42mi
2132 Gilbert Ave Unit A Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.5	1450	$2,250	$1.55	5d	1	1.43mi
1055 St Paul Pl Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,995	$3.07	2d	10	1.45mi
1287 Ida St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.5	2494	$4,700	$1.88	18d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   price $69,000
3. 2026-02-16
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2022-05-18
   soldstatus $198,000
5. 2022-05-13
   soldstatus $198,000 Sold 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Welcome 1020 Ervin Terrace in Home Sweet Dayton. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines old world charm with updated design including arched doorways, new hardwood floors, and high ceilings. A first floor primary suite, charming front porch, and light filled rooms. BACK ON MARKET after Buyer Changed Mind.

6. 2022-04-02
   status Pending 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Welcome 1020 Ervin Terrace in Home Sweet Dayton. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines old world charm with updated design including arched doorways, new hardwood floors, and high ceilings. A first floor primary suite, charming front porch, and light filled rooms. BACK ON MARKET after Buyer Changed Mind.

7. 2022-03-28
   listed $192,500 Active 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Welcome 1020 Ervin Terrace in Home Sweet Dayton. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines old world charm with updated design including arched doorways, new hardwood floors, and high ceilings. A first floor primary suite, charming front porch, and light filled rooms. BACK ON MARKET after Buyer Changed Mind.

8. 2022-03-05
   status Pending
9. 2022-03-04
   historical
10. 2022-03-02
    listed $192,500 Active
11. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus $140,000
12. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed
13. 2020-07-22
    status Pending
14. 2020-07-15
    price $140,000
15. 2020-07-08
    status Active
16. 2020-07-05
    status Pending
17. 2020-07-03
    price $145,000
18. 2020-06-27
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $81,500
20. 2017-02-03
    soldstatus $81,500
21. 2016-11-02
    listed $78,500
22. 2012-04-24
    historical
23. 2012-02-10
    listed $89,900
24. 2005-01-06
    historical
25. 2004-07-06
    listed $79,000
26. 2003-01-31
    soldstatus $15,100
27. 2002-12-24
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,519 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,519
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $15,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,805
• After-tax cash flow: $12,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101530
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,533
• Composite: 23.0/100
• National rank: #7978
• State rank: #129 of 165 in KY

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #1485

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, KY
• County: Campbell County · 84,793 people
• City population: 5,756
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 5,756
• Household income: $66,087
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 215.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,668 people
• By 2030: 96,886 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 97,734 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 96,413 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 90,211 · -5.7%
• By 2100: 79,434 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.2% · R 58.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.2pp toward D · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.48%
• Current HPI: 235.1437
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.15%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $69,000 NKMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $60,000 NKMLS
• 2022-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (MLS) $198,000 NKMLS
• 2022-04-02 Pending — NKMLS
• 2022-03-28 Listed $192,500 NKMLS
• 2022-03-05 Pending — NKMLS
• 2022-03-04 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listed $192,500 NKMLS
• 2020-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NKMLS
• 2020-07-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2020-07-15 Price Changed $140,000 NKMLS
• 2020-07-08 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2020-07-05 Pending — NKMLS
• 2020-07-03 Price Changed $145,000 NKMLS
• 2020-06-27 Listed $150,000 NKMLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) $81,500 NKMLS
• 2016-11-02 Listed $78,500 NKMLS
• 2012-04-24 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2012-02-10 Listed $89,900 NKMLS
• 2005-01-06 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2004-07-06 Listed $79,000 NKMLS
• 2003-01-31 Sold (MLS) $15,100 NKMLS
• 2002-12-24 Listed $15,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,519 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.