3817 Hillburn Rd · East Niles, CA 93306

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1939 6,534 sqft lot $188/sqft · 23% below area Est $284k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Flexible space
• Outdoor space

Tags

• R2 ZONED LOT
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: RV space (dimensions not specified)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Zoned R2
• Construction: Slab foundation; Wood roof
• Exterior features: Vacant; Has RV space

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Central Heat
• Interior features: Great Room; Breakfast Area; Basement; Range/Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,835 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,921
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -22.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3306 Center St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+3%)	3mo	$186,000	$155	71
3317 Center	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,160 (-1%)	2mo	$332,500	$287	70
3112 Kentucky St	0.55mi	3/1.8	1,202 (+3%)	4mo	$289,900	$241	63
4402 Lexington Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,127 (-4%)	4mo	$170,000	$151	59
2308 Pageant St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,136 (-3%)	7mo	$280,000	$246	54
404 Hill St	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,102 (-6%)	1mo	$280,000	$254	53
2217 Fairfax Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,289 (+10%)	6mo	$250,000	$194	48
715 Normandy Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,079 (-8%)	6mo	$247,000	$229	44
6617 Dorva Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	0mo	$220,000	$220	44
2518 Lynwood St	0.73mi	3/1.0	995 (-15%)	1mo	$285,000	$286	41
3303 Mesa Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	996 (-15%)	7mo	$265,000	$266	38
3112-3112 Lexington	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (+12%)	5mo	$31,000	$24	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,863
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-58,807
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,594/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $192,483

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1322 Vale St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1177	$2,100	$1.78	2d	1	0.28mi
930 Sterling Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	848	$1,150	$1.36	14d	1	0.44mi
925 Pesante Rd Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	2d	1	0.45mi
3306 Gardenia Ave Apt B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	44d	1	0.77mi
3311 Camellia Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,925	$1.71	44d	1	0.89mi
7000 College Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,480	$1.74	19d	1	0.96mi
7000 College Ave Unit 035 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,525	$1.80	14d	1	0.96mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	19d	1	0.96mi
2703 Center St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	2d	1	1.04mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 12 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	2d	1	1.15mi
3017 Potomac Ave Apt 10 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	746	$995	$1.33	44d	1	1.15mi
460 Oswell St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	2d	1	1.18mi
2617 Auburn Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$2,100	$1.72	14d	1	1.27mi
2731 Bernard St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,425	$1.93	2d	10	1.30mi
2300 Lake St Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1105	$1,650	$1.49	2d	1	1.42mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	2d	1	1.45mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	44d	1	1.45mi
2124 Pacific St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	823	$1,395	$1.70	2d	1	1.45mi
2190 Monterey St Unit 9 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	10d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 993-char remark
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $220,000 Active 993-char remark
3. 2026-04-10
   price $244,000
4. 2026-04-09
   status Active
5. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-02
   price $249,000
7. 2026-01-26
   listed $255,000 Active
8. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus $230,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

9. 2023-05-02
   soldstatus $230,000

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

10. 2023-03-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

11. 2023-03-26
    historical Active - Contingent

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

12. 2023-03-21
    listed $222,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    What makes a great first time home purchase? Location, condition, price? If you are looking for all three, this might be it! Located in the NE close to Bakersfield Country Club area is this charming 2 bed, 1 bath w/ bonus basement room. Fully fenced lot w/ abundant parking for visiting family & friends. Nice low maintenance grassy yard. Amenities include a comfortable family room w/ French doors that open to the patio. In house laundry. Central A/C, ceiling fans, & new water heater. R2 zoning. A perfect value for new home buyers, retirees or investors. Showings by appt. Call today!

13. 2008-07-22
    soldstatus $40,000
14. 2008-07-03
    price $54,900
15. 2008-07-03
    historical
16. 2008-06-05
    listed $40,000
17. 2007-11-21
    historical
18. 2007-11-20
    historical
19. 2007-10-29
    historical
20. 2007-08-27
    listed $159,000
21. 2007-08-22
    listed $159,000
22. 2007-08-20
    listed
23. 2006-07-20
    soldstatus $205,000
24. 2005-07-22
    soldstatus $127,000
25. 2005-03-23
    soldstatus $82,000
26. 1997-09-16
    soldstatus $20,000
27. 1992-12-04
    soldstatus $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,594 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,594 · $299/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,594
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+363.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $220,000 GEMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $244,000 GEMLS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — GEMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $249,000 GEMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $255,000 GEMLS
• 2023-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-02 Sold (MLS) $230,000 GEMLS
• 2023-03-27 Pending — GEMLS
• 2023-03-26 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2023-03-21 Listed $222,500 GEMLS
• 2008-07-22 Sold (MLS) $40,000 GEMLS
• 2008-07-03 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2008-07-03 Price Changed $54,900 GEMLS
• 2008-06-05 Listed $40,000 GEMLS
• 2007-11-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-11-20 Delisted — TheMLS
• 2007-10-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-08-27 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2007-08-22 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2007-08-20 Listed — TheMLS
• 2006-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,594 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.