5653 Ruby Rd Unit 356-5 · Lowell, IN 46356

$304,385

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse · 15 Days on market

Built 2025 0.70 ac lot $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction in Lowell, IN - Introducing the Aspen. The Aspen is a charming and versatile two-story new construction home in Northwest Indiana, thoughtfully designed for modern living. This home features 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and an open-concept layout that blends style and functionality. The main floor showcases a beautifully designed kitchen with pantry, overlooking the spacious Great Room. Perfect for entertaining or relaxing. A 12x10 concrete patio and sunroom provide additional spaces to enjoy indoor-outdoor living. An attached 2-car garage and optional powder room add everyday convenience. Upstairs, two generously sized bedrooms and a flexible loft offer endless versatility

Key facts

• Private bath
• Flexible loft
• Concrete patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• CONCRETE PATIO
• SUNROOM
• FLEXIBLE LOFT
• PRIVATE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $304,385 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B, #117 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 563 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 351 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $262,845 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,960
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5653 Ruby Rd Unit 356-5	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,760 (0%)	0mo	$299,385	$170	100
5637 Ruby Rd Unit 356-3	0.00mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (0%)	1mo	$300,530	$171	94
5669 Ruby Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,616 (-8%)	1mo	$294,995	$183	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,829
• Equity at exit: $44,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,542
• Equity at exit: $26,022

Cash invested: $84,269 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,514/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $282,382

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $-24	+0% $-128	+5% $-232	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-232	+0% $-128	+5% $-25	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-52	base $-128	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,240
• Closing costs: $9,029
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8301 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,800	$1.63	17d	1	0.96mi
8366 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,450	$1.33	0d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-23
   listed $304,385 Active
3. 2025-11-22
   historical
4. 2025-10-07
   listed $304,385 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,858
• − Property taxes: −$4,514
• − Insurance: −$1,505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,755
• Taxable loss: −$6,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lowell, IN
• City population: 19,396
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Listed $304,385 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $304,385 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid