19 Cards Mill Rd · Willimantic, CT 06237

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1886 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two bedroom one bath home is situated on a sloping 1.5 acre lot, offering privacy off a quiet back road just minutes from Willimantic. With approximately 962 square feet of living space, the home features a traditional layout with abundant natural light, and hardwood flooring in the main living areas ready to be restored. This property also includes a detached garage, ideal for storage, workshop use, or other future improvement. Interior spaces provide a blank canvas for renovation, with ample room to reimagine and modernize. The expansive yard and peaceful location make this an attractive option for investors or buyers looking to create value in a desirable rural location. This proper

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Peaceful location
• Expansive yard

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• PEACEFUL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Oil fuel tank located in basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation; Asphalt shingle gable roof; Exterior siding: shingle and asbestos
• Exterior features: Deck; Awnings; Lightly wooded, sloping lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Window unit cooling; 40-gallon natural gas hot water tank
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Partial, unfinished basement with hatchway access and concrete floor; Has attic with hatch access; Window unit cooling
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement / lower level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($546/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Willimantic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#3 in CT, #487 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, employment F.
• Columbia School District (rural): math 26% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #95 of 153 in CT (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $235k implies a 1075% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1886 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,661 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1886 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-35,206
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,030
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06237

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,418/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,939

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $112	+0% $46	+5% $-21	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-33	+0% $46	+5% $124	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $105	base $46	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $235,000 Active
2. 1996-02-27
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,418 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,724 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,306/yr (+$109/mo · 54.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,418
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$832
• After-tax cash flow: $1,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 0900900
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $90,758
• Composite: 37.46/100
• National rank: #4409
• State rank: #95 of 153 in CT

Livability — Willimantic

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #487

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,344
• Population (ZIP): 5,268

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.32%
• Current HPI: 189.6876
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+1075.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $235,000 Smart MLS
• 1996-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,418 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.